S&P 500: Technical outlook and review

S&P 500 chalks up largest one-month gain since mid-2022

November finished higher by nearly 9.0%; it was a cracking month for the S&P 500, chalking up its largest one-month gain since July 2022 and closing on the doorstep of the 4,607 top printed in July. You will note that from the monthly timeframe, we can see that the Index is entrenched within a longer-term uptrend, and a break beyond 4,607 could pave the way to the all-time high of 4,818.

According to the weekly chart, the week finished shaking hands with a resistance level of 4,595, a base the Research Team have banged the drum for over the past couple of weeks. If we clear offers around this level this week, space to explore higher terrain throws resistance at 4,743 into the mix as potential resistance in the coming weeks, sheltered just south of 4,818.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on both the monthly and weekly charts indicate positive momentum (> 50.00) and exhibit room to push higher until reaching overbought conditions.

Moving across to the daily timeframe, price action helped reaffirm the bullish presence by rupturing resistance at 4,578 last week (now a marked support level). This followed a retest of support at 4,541, as was noted as a possibility in last week’s week-ahead post. Subsequent buying exposes the 4,607 top (circled) mentioned above on the monthly timeframe, followed by daily resistance at 4,653.

Going forward

While there is certainly a ceiling of resistance for buyers to contend with this week: weekly resistance at 4,595 and the July peak at 4,607, the strength of buyers is hard to overlook. As a result, any retest seen at daily support from 4,578 this week could bolster dip buying. Additionally, a breakout beyond 4,607/4.595 resistance may encourage further upside towards daily resistance at 4,653.

Charts: TradingView