Softbank group (SFTBY) breaks uptrend, gap fill levels now in focus

Softbank Group Corp (SFTBY), the Japanese multinational conglomerate known for its massive tech investment portfolio through the Vision Fund, has officially broken its multi-month uptrend. After an impressive rally from around $37 in July to nearly $90 by early November, shares have cracked below critical support and are now trading at $70.60—down 5.87% and sending a clear technical message that the trend has shifted.

Chart(s) courtesy of TradingView

Let's be direct about what happened here. That yellow ascending trendline stretching from the July lows through the entire rally? Price just broke beneath it. For months, that line acted as the backbone of the bullish move, providing reliable support on every pullback. But not this time. When a trendline that's defined an entire rally finally gives way, it's often the market's way of saying the character of the move has fundamentally changed.

What happens next largely depends on how those gap fill levels below perform. The first zone to watch is $64.36—marked here as "Gap Fill First Support." This represents an unfilled gap from the climb higher, and these voids in price action have a magnetic quality. Markets tend to revisit them, almost like unfinished business demanding closure. If selling pressure continues, that's your first logical landing spot.

Should $64.36 fail to hold, we've got secondary support down at $56.24. That's another gap fill level and would represent a much more substantial retracement—roughly a 20% decline from current levels. It might sound dramatic, but once an established uptrend breaks, deeper corrections aren't unusual. The technical damage has been done.

For traders, the playbook has shifted. The ascending trendline that once represented a buying opportunity now acts as overhead resistance around $75-77. Any rallies back toward that zone should be viewed with skepticism unless we see extraordinarily strong buying volume. More likely, that former support becomes a ceiling—a common phenomenon in technical analysis.

The bearish scenario is straightforward: continued weakness toward $64.36, potentially testing $56.24 if sellers remain in control. A bullish reversal would require reclaiming that broken trendline on a daily closing basis, which seems unlikely in the near term given the momentum shift.

My experience tells me that when trendlines this well-defined finally break, the initial reaction is often just the beginning. Could this be a temporary shakeout before resuming higher? Possible, but the burden of proof now rests entirely on the bulls. They need to show up with conviction, and fast.