SNB Preview: Two scenarios and their implications for EUR/CHF – Credit Suisse

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Tomorrow’s SNB meeting could be a decisive event for EUR/CHF. Economists at Credit Suisse envisage two scenarios.

Hawkish (60% odds)

Hiking by 50 bps would cement the SNB’s inflation-fighting credentials amid the recent trend of lower headline and core inflation rates. This hawkish scenario could be even more powerful were the SNB to signal further interest rate hikes in the future and should be Franc supportive.

Dovish (40% odds)

Hiking 50 bps but hinting at an end to the rate hiking cycle or ‘only’ raising rates by 25 bps combined with a dovish language should lead to a weaker Swiss Franc. The peak in the implied policy rate is near. Such a dovish scenario should lead to a softer CHF on a short- and medium-term basis.

The EUR/CHF target for end of this quarter is 0.96000

We stick with our current 0.9600 EUR/CHF target for the end of this quarter and would not rule out even lower levels in the medium term should our hawkish scenario unfold. Should the SNB decide not to live up to our hawkish expectations, we would not rule out a potential squeeze higher toward parity in EUR/CHF.

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD drops to multi-month troughs near 1.3140

GBP/USD adds to Tuesday’s pullback and recedes to the lowest level since November 2025 near 1.3140. A firmer Greenback and continued political turmoil in the UK are keeping Cable under persistent pressure, with little sign of a meaningful recovery.

EUR/USD bounces off YTD lows around 1.1320

EUR/USD extends its decline on Wednesday, falling to fresh yearly lows near 1.1320. The pair remains on the defensive as the US Dollar continues to draw support from hawkish Fed expectations and uncertainty over the outcome of US-Iran peace negotiations.

Gold trims losses, back above $4,000

Gold retreats further and breaches below the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce for the first time since November 2025 on Wednesday. Higher-for-longer Fed expectations and a broadly firmer US Dollar continue to weigh on the precious metal, while uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement has done little to revive demand for the safe haven space.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP trade under pressure as September Fed rate-hike odds increase

Bitcoin is trading between $62,000 and $63,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by headwinds stemming from macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

5.90% to 5.45%: Why the Pound ignored the bond market’s relief rally

Keir Starmer resigned on Monday, and the Pound barely moved. That near-silence is the tell. Sterling's real driver these past four months has not been the prime minister, nor the left-leaning frontrunner lining up to replace him, but the long end of the gilt curve, which answers to a force no British politician controls.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.