Slow vaccine rollouts biggest risk to Eurozone economy – Reuters Poll

As per the latest survey of 42 economists by Reuters, “Eurozone economy will recover at a much weaker rate this quarter than expected only a month ago.” The reason cited was a slower vaccine rollout as the biggest risk over the next three months.

Additional details…

Over 90% of economists, or 38 of 42, who answered an additional question said the biggest risk to that already modest outlook would be a slower vaccination drive.

Of those economists who said a slower vaccine rollout was the biggest risk, 85% either downgraded their Q2 growth forecast or kept it unchanged.

The bloc was expected to expand 2.3% in Q3 and 1.3% in Q4, roughly unchanged from March. But the range of forecasts for quarterly growth showed lower highs.

When asked about the risks to their inflation outlook over the coming year, over 80% of economists, or 30 of 37, said they were skewed more to the upside.

FX implications

With the vaccine roll-outs already being a big problem for the bloc, recently magnified by blood clotting issues over the Johnson & Johnson jab, such polls are negative for the EUR/USD prices. That said, the currency major refreshes intraday low to $1.1952 by the press time of early Friday.

Read: EUR/USD Price Analysis: Thursday’s bearish spinning top below 1.2000 probes buyers