Singapore: A strong first half, an uncertain second – Standard Chartered

Sandeep Kanihama FXStreet Contributor

According to analysts at Standard Chartered, Singapore’s Q2 GDP was likely robust on recovering services and firm manufacturing.

Key Quotes

“We expect Q2 GDP growth to have remained firm at 4.2% y/y (versus 4.4% in Q1). The services sector likely continued its recovery, supported by strong regional economic performance and digital transformation, benefitting the financial services and information and communication services sub-sectors. The improving labour market may have also helped support domestic spending.”

“Manufacturing growth likely eased from the robust 9.8% y/y in Q1 but remained firm. Industrial production (IP) in April-May 2018 rose 10.1%, but there was an unfavourable base effect in June.”

“Our GDP growth tracker suggests upside risk to our Q2 GDP growth forecast. The difference is likely due to our tracker being reliant on more readily available externally-driven activity data, such as IP.”

“While H1 growth was healthy, the outlook is now more uncertain given the latest negative developments on the US-China trade front.”

“We had projected slower growth in H2, but the negative trade developments are increasing the downside risks.”

Author

Sandeep Kanihama

FXStreet Contributor

Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.

USD/JPY eyes August swing low, near 155.20 ahead of US NFP

USD/JPY retests the August monthly swing low during the Asian session on Friday as a more hawkish repricing of BoJ rate-hike bets and a suspected intervention continue to underpin the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar is seen consolidating the previous day's heavy losses amid soft US bond yields, further weighing on the currency pair as traders keenly await the US NFP report.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200; US NFP awaited

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7200, near its highest level since mid-May, as bulls await the US NFP report for more cues on the Fed's policy path before placing fresh bets. Meanwhile, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near its lowest level in over a week and acts as a tailwind for the Aussie amid the RBA's hawkish tilt.

Gold tumbles as blockbuster US NFP lift US Dollar, Treasury yields

Gold (XAU/USD) falls sharply on Friday, snapping a two-day recovery after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised strongly to the upside. The metal briefly climbed above $4,500 on Thursday, gaining nearly 2%, but has since erased a large part of that advance.

Crypto’s $638 million buyback boom may not be as bullish as it looks

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) protocols reportedly spent $638 million to buy back their native tokens in August, up 17% from a year earlier. On the surface, the buyback trend suggests the cryptocurrency industry is maturing fast, adopting one of Wall Street’s oldest tools to bolster valuations and distribute revenue. The headline becomes less impressive once the number is opened up.

Why hawkish Bank of Japan expectations aren't enough to sustain the Japanese Yen rally

The Japanese Yen (JPY) experienced a sudden burst higher after falling back below the 160.00 psychological mark against the US Dollar (USD) earlier this week amid a more hawkish repricing of Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike expectations.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.