• Silver price drops as US bond yields escalate while the US dollar weakens.
  • Sentiment remains fragile, shifting sour since the European equities close.
  • Silver’s price action to remain choppy ahead of the US CPI report.

Silver price retreats from weekly highs reached on Monday at $20.74 but is exchanging hands near the August 9 lows at $20.42 as the Asian Pacific session starts. At the time of writing, XAGUSD is trading at $20.52, slightly up 0.15%.

Silver drops albeit a soft US dollar

Wall Street ended Tuesday’s session in the red, while Asian equities point to a lower open. The greenback weakens, as shown by the US Dollar Index at 106.302, down 0.07%, while the US 10-year bond yield rises two bps at 2.783%.

Sentiment shifted sour due to several reasons. Firstly, last Friday’s strong US jobs report remains in traders’ minds, putting recession fears away, as shown by money market futures STIRs, portraying a 88% chance of a Federal Reserve 75 bps rate hike. That said, alongside hawkish Fed commentary, policymakers have reiterated the Fed’s commitment to bringing inflation down. Most members have been vocal about going 75 bps in the next meeting, while Cleveland’s Fed Mester and Chicago’s Fed Evans remain open to 50 or 75 bps.

Furthermore, the US inflation figures looming keeps investors uneasy. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July is expected at 8.7% YoY, less than June’s 9.1%, while core CPI figures are foreseen at 6.1% YoY vs. 6.2% in the previous reading.

After Wednesday’s main event, XAGUSD traders should expect feedback from the Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Minnesota Fed’s Neil Kashkari, which would cross the wires after the release. By Thursday, the San Francisco Fed President, Mary Daly, will cross wires on Bloomberg.

Silver (XAGUSD) scenarios for Wednesday’s US CPI

Therefore, XAGUSD traders should be aware of important US economic data. If the CPI tops expectations, we could see a reaction of US bond yields rising, underpinning the greenback higher, consequently precious metals prices falling. Otherwise, if US inflation shows signs of tempering, silver and commodity prices could increase, while US bond yields and the greenback fall.

Silver (XAGUSD) Key Technical Levels

XAG/USD

Overview
Today last price 20.52
Today Daily Change -0.15
Today Daily Change % -0.73
Today daily open 20.67
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 19.32
Daily SMA50 20.34
Daily SMA100 21.93
Daily SMA200 22.78
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 20.74
Previous Daily Low 19.8
Previous Weekly High 20.51
Previous Weekly Low 19.55
Previous Monthly High 20.37
Previous Monthly Low 18.15
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 20.38
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 20.16
Daily Pivot Point S1 20.06
Daily Pivot Point S2 19.46
Daily Pivot Point S3 19.12
Daily Pivot Point R1 21.01
Daily Pivot Point R2 21.35
Daily Pivot Point R3 21.95

 

 

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