Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD unable to break above the 200-DMA, retreats below $25.00

Silver (XAG/USD) slumps from $25.00 tops down to the $24.90 region, amid falling US bond yields, and broad US dollar weakness across the board. At press time, XAG/USD is trading at $24.91 down 0.60%, during the New York session. The market sentiment is downbeat, despite two of the largest US equity indices rising between 0.38% and  1.01%. All European equity indices finished in the red.

In the overnight session, XAG/USD remained subdued, around the $25.00-15 range, though it dipped down to $24.70, once the US Initial Jobless Claims for October were unveiled, figures that were mild-worse than foreseen though lower than the previous week reading. The Claims came at 268K, 8K over than expected, but 1K lower than the previous week, revised up to 269K. Continuing Jobless Claims unexpectedly fell by 200K, from 2.209M to 2.080M in the week ending on November 6.

According to sources cited by Bloomberg, Unemployment claims "have been declining on a sustained basis, and are moving to pre-pandemic levels." Further added, "layoffs are falling, reflective of companies holding on to workers amid a labor shortage.''

Further, US bond yields remain subdued in the New York session. The US 10-year benchmark note is down two basis points, at 1.584%, underpins the greenback with the US Dollar Index falling below the 95.80 level, down 0.28%, sitting at  95.56.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver failure at the 200-day moving average (DMA) at $25.32, spurred a downward move, below $25.00, but bounced off the September 3 hight support at $24.87, stabilizing around the $24.90 region. The 50 and the 100-DMA, are located below the spot price, supporting the upward bias, though the 100-DMA lies between the 200-DMA on the top, and the 50 on the bottom.

For XAG/USD bulls to regain control, they will need a daily close above the 200-DMA. In that outcome, the August 4 high at $26.00 would be the first resistance. A break of the latter would expose the July 6 high at $26.77, followed by the psychological $28.00, near the 2021 year-to-date highs.

On the flip side, a break of $24.87 support level, would expose the 100-DMA at $24.12, followed by the 50-DMA at $23.51.