Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rallies amid uncertainty over economic and geopolitical outlook
- Silver price soars to near $34.50 due to growing uncertainty over US elections and escalating Middle East tensions.
- PBoC’s larger-than-expected interest rate cut has improved Silver’s demand as a metal.
- The US Dollar refreshes an 11-week high on expectations of moderate interest rate cuts from the Fed.
Silver price (XAG/USD) surges to near $34.50 in Tuesday’s North American session, the highest level seen in over 12 years. The white metal strengthened after Israel launched missiles at Hezbollah’s financial institutions situated in the southern Lebanese cities of Tyre and Nabatiyeh. Escalating tensions in the Middle East region has improved Silver’s appeal as a safe haven.
In the United States (US) economy, growing uncertainty over presidential elections, which are just two weeks away has also strengthened the Silver price appeal. Latest national polls have shown that competition between former US President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris is very stiff. Market experts worry that Trump’s victory could undermine the currencies of the US’s trading partners. Trump promised to raise tariffs and lower taxes if he wins elections.
The demand outlook of the Silver as metal has improved after the People’s Bank of China’s policy announcement on Monday in which the central bank reduced one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by larger-than-expected size of 25 basis points (bps). Silver as a metal has applications in various industries such as Electric Vehicles (EV), wires and cables, and mining etc. The PBoC cuts its key borrowing rates with an outsize margin to boost households’ consumption and spending on infrastructure and to revive the housing sector.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) posts a fresh 11-week high as investors expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates gradually. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, climbs above 104.00.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price strengthens after a breakout above the horizontal resistance plotted from May 21 high of $32.50 on a daily timeframe. Upward-sloping 20- and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near $30.70 and $31.70, respectively, signals more upside ahead.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates above 60.00, points to an active bullish momentum.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
