Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD plummets to $26 despite weak US NFP data

Silver price plunges to $26 despite a sell-off in the US Dollar and bond yields.
The US NFP report for April exhibited weak labor demand and soft wage growth.
Weak labor demand will boost Fed rate cut prospects for September.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

Silver price (XAG/USD) reverses gains and falls sharply to $26.00 despite the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April turned out weaker than expected. The US NFP report showed that employers hired 175K job-seekers, weaker than the consensus of 243K and the prior reading of 315K, upwardly revised from 303K. The Unemployment Rate rises to 3.9% while investors forecasted it to remain steady at 3.8%.

The Average Hourly Earnings, which feeds the consumer spending and eventually reflects the inflation outlook, softened to 3.9%. Investors forecasted the wage growth to decelerate to 4.0% from March’s reading of 4.1%. Monthly wage growth data grew at a slower pace of 0.2%, against the estimates and the prior reading of 0.3%.

Weak labor demand and soft wage growth would force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to unwind its restrictive policy framework earlier, which it has been maintaining for almost two years. Currently, investors expect that the Fed will start reducing interest rates from the September meeting. The situation is unfavorable for the US Dollar and Treasury yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, prints a fresh three-week low around 104.50. 10-year US Treasury Yields weaken to 4.49%.

Generally, lower yields on interest-bearing assets weigh on non-yielding assets such as Silver as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding investment in them. Therefore, the Silver price could reverse losses ahead.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price declines to near the horizontal support plotted from 14 April 2023 high around $26.09 on a daily timeframe. The above-mentioned support was earlier a major resistance for the Silver price bulls. The uncertainty over Silver’s near-term outlook deepens as it has slipped below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $27.20.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) slips into the 40.00-60.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum has faded. However, the long-term outlook is still stable.

Silver daily chart

XAG/USD

Overview
Today last price	26.34
Today Daily Change	-0.34
Today Daily Change %	-1.27
Today daily open	26.68

Trends
Daily SMA20	27.65
Daily SMA50	25.7
Daily SMA100	24.42
Daily SMA200	23.82

Levels
Previous Daily High	26.82
Previous Daily Low	26.02
Previous Weekly High	28.69
Previous Weekly Low	26.67
Previous Monthly High	29.8
Previous Monthly Low	24.75
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	26.51
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	26.32
Daily Pivot Point S1	26.19
Daily Pivot Point S2	25.7
Daily Pivot Point S3	25.39
Daily Pivot Point R1	27
Daily Pivot Point R2	27.31
Daily Pivot Point R3	27.8

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

GBP/USD ranges below 1.3450 amid US-Iran uncertainty, ahead of US data

GBP/USD keeps its range below 1.3450 in the European session on Tuesday. Uncertainty surrounding US-Iran talks drives traders toward a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar, while undermining the risk-sensitive British Pound. All eyes remain on the US JOLTS data and Mideast headlines.

EUR/USD flatlines above 1.1500, awaits US jobs data

EUR/USD holds steady around 1.1505 in European trading hours on Tuesday. Markets remain cautious ahead of a slew of US jobs data, starting with the JOLTS Job Openings Survey later today. However, the downside appears capped by hot Eurozone inflation in July, bolstering the case for a European Central Bank rate hike at the next meeting.

Gold consolidates above $4,050 amid Fed hike bets and Iran uncertainty

Gold seesaws between tepid gains and minor losses during the Asian session as traders seem hesitant and opt to wait for further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. The US Dollar struggles to build on the previous day's solid bounce from the lowest level since Mid-June and acts as a tailwind for the bullion. However, the uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks helps limit the downside for the buck.

Ripple and Stellar steady as derivatives data points to easing downside pressure

Ripple and Stellar show mixed price action, with XRP holding above the key $1 support zone while XLM faces rejection at $0.173. Meanwhile, improving derivatives metrics alongside fading bearish momentum suggest that the downside pressure may be easing for both altcoins. Derivatives data shows mild bullish sentiment among traders.

US JOLTs report in focus

In the US, the June JOLTs report will be in the spotlight. Job openings have increased modestly this year, which has historically predicted rising wage cost pressures ahead. June trade balance data will also be released in the afternoon and the preliminary reading pointed towards a stable trade deficit from May. The Fed's Schmid (non-voter, hawk) will be on the wires overnight.

9-3: Is the Federal Reserve’s vote tally Warsh's new forward guidance?

The rate did not move. Neither did the statement, and that’s the more interesting fact. Set the July 29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement beside the one issued on June 17, and the two documents are identical apart from a single verb and a paragraph at the bottom naming three dissenters.