|

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD nears $32 hurdle amid Fed rate cut speculation

  • Silver gains 0.19%, stabilizing at $31.89 as traders anticipate key U.S. inflation figures and Fed's next steps.
  • Technical analysis highlights consolidation near the $32 mark, with $31.75 acting as crucial support.
  • Potential downside risks include a fall towards the $31.00 area and the 100-day SMA at $30.47 if bearish pressure mounts.

Silver price climbed some 0.19% on Tuesday yet failed to clear the $32.00 hurdle after hitting a three-week high of $32.27 at the beginning of the week. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $31.89 as Wednesday’s Asian Pacific session commences.

Mounting speculation about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week is driving market sentiment. The release of US inflation data on Wednesday is expected to provide clearer insights into the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

After briefly climbing above $32.00, XAG/USD retreated and is now consolidating within the $31.75–$32.00 range, with the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.75 serving as key support.

The price action suggests the formation of a "double bottom" chart pattern, which remains just short of its minimum target of $33.50. A decisive break above the $32.00 resistance level could strengthen bullish momentum, paving the way toward $33.00 and ultimately the "double bottom" target.

On the other hand, if XAG/USD falls below the 50-day SMA, sellers may gain control, potentially driving prices toward the low $31.00 range. A further decline past this level could bring the 100-day SMA at $30.47 into focus.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD holds above 0.6950 as bullish USD caps gains

AUD/USD edges lower during the Asian session on Tuesday, stalling a two-day recovery move from a two-month low, touched last week. An extended rout in the fixed income market keeps US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs. This, along with geopolitical uncertainties, helps the US Dollar retain its bullish tone despite receding October Fed hike bets. However, expectations for another RBA rate hike this month could act as a tailwind for the Aussie.

USD/JPY remains confined in a range; 158.00 holds the key

USD/JPY extends its consolidative move during the Asian session on Tuesday, trading below 158.00 amid diverging forces. Hawkish BoJ expectations support the Japanese Yen amid looming intervention risks. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty and elevated US bond yields keep the US Dollar near its YTD high despite receding October Fed hike bets. This, in turn, holds back traders from placing aggressive directional bets.

Gold holds steady below $4,150 as receding Fed hike bets lend support

Gold continues its struggle to gain any meaningful traction, holding steady below $4,150 during the Asian session on Tuesday. Receding October Fed hike bets act as a tailwind for the non-yielding bullion, though a bullish US Dollar caps the upside. Furthermore, traders await the release of the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday for more cues about the future policy path and some meaningful impetus.

Ethereum: BitMine scoops extra ETH tokens following Q3 outperformance
Ethereum (ETH) treasury firm BitMine Immersion continued its buying streak of the top altcoin last week. The firm acquired 15,112 ETH, lifting its holdings to 6.016 million ETH, representing 4.9% of ETH's circulating supply and worth $16.16 billion at the time of writing. That brings the company roughly 98.5% closer to acquiring 5% of ETH's supply, a goal it tags "Alchemy of 5%."
Markets just priced out rate hikes on financial stress. This chart shows why 2022-23 says they’ll be wrong

Traders have taken about one quarter-point hike out of their European Central Bank forecasts since mid-September, betting the ECB will stop raising rates because of a French debt selloff. The same bet failed twice in 2022 and 2023, when the ECB kept raising rates through financial stress because inflation was above its 2% target. Euro-area inflation came in at 3.8% in September.

Eurozone inflation just hit 3.8%, its highest in three years. This chart shows why the ECB can’t simply hike its way out

The ECB would normally have a relatively straightforward answer to inflation running almost twice its target: raise interest rates. But these are not normal circumstances. This time, the bond market is already doing part of the tightening for it, leaving the ECB facing an increasingly difficult dilemma.