Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD extends upside to near $33.20 on US credit downgrade
- Silver price jumps to near $33.20 as the US Dollar underperforms on the US Sovereign Credit downgrade.
- Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating by one notch to Aa1.
- Investors await the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks in Vatican City.
Silver price (XAG/USD) hits a fresh weekly high to near $33.20 during North American trading hours on Wednesday. The white metal strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) extends its downside on the United States (US) credit rating erosion in the wake of large debt levels and escalated fiscal imbalances.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slumps to near 99.50, the lowest level seen in two weeks. Technically, a soft US Dollar makes the Silver price a value bet for investors. Additionally, concerns over US credit erosion improve the safe-haven demand of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.49% | -0.30% | -0.57% | -0.51% | -0.54% | -0.56% | -0.48% | |
| EUR | 0.49% | 0.19% | -0.11% | -0.04% | -0.02% | -0.07% | 0.01% | |
| GBP | 0.30% | -0.19% | -0.29% | -0.21% | -0.20% | -0.25% | -0.19% | |
| JPY | 0.57% | 0.11% | 0.29% | 0.05% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.09% | |
| CAD | 0.51% | 0.04% | 0.21% | -0.05% | -0.03% | -0.04% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | 0.54% | 0.02% | 0.20% | -0.04% | 0.03% | -0.04% | 0.04% | |
| NZD | 0.56% | 0.07% | 0.25% | -0.00% | 0.04% | 0.04% | 0.07% | |
| CHF | 0.48% | -0.01% | 0.19% | -0.09% | -0.02% | -0.04% | -0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
On Friday, Moody’s downgraded the US Sovereign Credit rating by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa amid concerns over ballooning debt levels to near $36 trillion. The credit rating firm also warned of debt levels widening further, with US President Donald Trump aiming to pass a new tax-cut bill to fulfil his economic agenda.
However, Republican lawmakers didn’t back the new tax bill in a closed-door meeting on Capitol Hill on Tuesday due to disagreement over higher deductions in state and local tax payments, according to a Republican Representative Mike Lawler, Reuters reported.
Meanwhile, investors keep a close eye on the Russia-Ukraine truce talks in the Vatican City. On Monday, US President Trump confirmed immediate ceasefire talks between Moscow and Kyiv through a post on Truth. Social, but didn’t mention any specific timeframe. Trump expressed confidence that talks would be majorly about ending the war and not a temporary truce. Russia and Ukraine will immediately start negotiations toward a Ceasefire and, more importantly, an END to the War," Trump said. Signs of progress in the Russia-Ukraine truce talks towards ending the war will be unfavorable for safe-haven assets, such as Silver.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price delivers a breakout of the Descending Triangle formation on a daily timeframe, which results in a strong upside move. The near-term trend of the white metal is bullish as it holds the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $32.65.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating a sideways trend. Should a fresh bullish momentum emerge if the RSI breaks above 60.00.
Looking up, the March 28 high of $34.60 will act as key resistance for the metal. On the downside, the April 11 low of $30.90 will be the key support zone.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
