Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD declines to near $30.30 as Fed to back fewer interest rate cuts in 2025
- Silver price refreshes a two-week low near $32.30 as bond yields continue their upside momentum ahead of the Fed’s policy.
- The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25%-4.50% on Wednesday.
- Investors expect the Fed to deliver slightly hawkish remarks on the interest rate outlook.
Silver price (XAG/USD) slumps to near $30.30 in Tuesday’s European session. The white metal weakens as bond yields stay firm on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will signal fewer interest rate reductions in 2025 after reducing key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% in the monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.
10-year US Treasury yields extend their winning streak for the seventh trading day on Tuesday, rises to near 4.42%. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets bode poorly for non-yielding assets such as Silver as they increase their opportunity cost. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, moves higher around 107.00.
According to a Bloomberg survey, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates three times in 2025. Fed’s policy-easing cycle would be more gradual as economists worry about rising upside risks to inflation than downside risks to employment.
Investors will pay close attention to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference to get cues about to what extent policies by incoming US President Donald Trump, such as immigration, trade and taxes, will influence inflationary pressures and interest rates.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price refreshes a two-week low near $30.30 on Tuesday. The white metal weakens after breaking below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $31.00.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend.
Looking down, the upward-sloping trendline around $29.50, which is plotted from the February 29 low of $22.30 on a daily timeframe, would act as key support for the Silver price. On the upside, the horizontal resistance plotted from the May 21 high of $32.50 would be the barrier.
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
