Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD attracts bids near $48 on renewed Sino-US trade tensions
- Silver price bounces back to near $49.20 on renewed US-China trade frictions.
- Washington plans to restrict software-powered exports to China.
- Investors await the Bessent-HE meeting and US CPI data for September.
Silver price (XAG/USD) rebounds to near $49.20 during the European trading session on Thursday after attracting bids near $48.00. The white metal gains on renewed trade tensions between the United States (US) and China.
Fears of global trade uncertainty improve demand for safe-haven assets, such as Silver.
On Wednesday, a report from Reuters showed that the White House mulls to impose export restrictions on software-powered products to China in response to curbs announced by Beijing on rare earth minerals.
This comes at a time when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is scheduled to meet China Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in Malaysia.
Going forward, investors will also focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will be published on Friday. The impact of the US inflation data is expected to be limited on expectations towards the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook, as comments from a majority of officials suggested that they are more concerned about deteriorating job market conditions.
Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool shows that traders are confident about the Fed reducing interest rates in its policy meeting scheduled for next week.
Lower interest rates by the Fed bode well for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Silver technical analysis
Silver price retraces from the all-time high of around $54.85 posted last week. The near-term trend of the precious metal has become uncertain as it struggles to return above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $49.01.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides below 60.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum has ended for now.
Looking down, the September 23 high of $44.47 would remain a key support. On the upside, the all-time high of $54.50 might act as key barrier.
Silver daily chart
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Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
