Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD appreciates toward $38.00 due to tariff uncertainty
- Silver price gains ground as safe-haven demand improves due to uncertainty from tariffs.
- The Trump administration would likely set a tariff of "a little over 10%" for those smaller countries.
- June’s US inflation data reignited concerns about prolonged high Fed interest rates.
Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground after registering losses in the previous two sessions, trading around $37.80 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The safe-haven demand for Silver grows amid uncertainty from tariffs.
US President Donald Trump sent notified 25 countries of new tariff rates set to take effect on August 1st, including major trading partners Canada, Mexico, and the European Union (EU). Moreover, Trump said late Tuesday that letters notifying smaller countries, including nations in Africa and the Caribbean, of their US tariff rates would go out soon, per Reuters. Trump further stated that his administration would likely set a tariff of "a little over 10%" for those countries.
The non-interest-bearing Silver may face challenges as the US inflation report for June reignited concerns about prolonged high Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rates. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in June, matching market expectations. Core CPI came in at 2.9%, just below the 3.0% forecast but still notably above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Traders will likely observe the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) later on Wednesday, followed by the Fed Beige Book and Industrial Production.
The dollar-denominated Silver may also struggle as the US Dollar (USD) continues to draw support from a cautious tone surrounding the Fed’s policy outlook, driven by hotter US CPI figures. It is important to note that a Stronger USD dampens the Silver demand as making it expensive for buyers with foreign currency. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is holding ground around 98.50 at the time of writing.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
