SAP SE tests its line in the sand after 43% plunge

SAP SE (SAP), the German enterprise software giant powering business operations for companies worldwide, finds itself at a defining technical moment. After peaking near $285 in early 2025, the stock has endured a brutal 43% decline that's brought it directly to a support level I've marked as the "line in the sand" at roughly $157-160. Currently trading around $161, SAP is quite literally testing whether this floor will hold or give way to further losses.

The chart tells a story of momentum reversal that's been relentless. From those January highs, sellers have maintained control through a series of lower peaks and troughs, creating a downtrend channel that's shown little mercy to bulls attempting to step in. Each bounce attempt has been met with renewed selling pressure, and the velocity of this decline speaks to a fundamental shift in sentiment around enterprise software valuations.

But here's where the rubber meets the road. That yellow line marking support around $157-160 is a zone where buyers previously showed conviction during the stock's earlier consolidation phases. The question facing traders now is whether that historical support will translate into renewed buying interest, or if the weight of the 43% decline has simply overwhelmed all nearby demand.

For bulls eyeing a reversal play, the setup requires patience. A confirmed bounce off this $160 support, ideally accompanied by a volume surge indicating genuine buying interest rather than just short covering, would be the first signal that sellers might be exhausted. Initial resistance targets would come in stages—first around $200-210, then the $235-240 zone if momentum builds.

The bearish case, however, remains straightforward: if SAP decisively breaks below $157, there's little obvious support until you start looking at levels from much earlier in the chart's history, potentially opening the door to a move toward $140 or lower.

What makes this moment potentially tradeable is the binary nature of the setup. SAP is either finding its bottom right here, right now, or it's about to discover just how much further "down" can go when a major support level fails.