JGB: Fiscal concerns may be overplayed – TD Securities

In their latest report, TD Securities analysts Prashant Newnaha and Alex Loo argue that fears surrounding Japan's fiscal outlook are exaggerated. They highlight that Japan's Gross Debt to GDP ratio is misleading due to significant government assets. The analysts expect the Bank of Japan to intervene if yields breach certain levels, indicating potential buying interest in JGBs.

Analysis of Japan's fiscal position

"Japan's Gross Debt to GDP at around 250% may capture the bulk of the market's attention, but sizable Government assets offsetting liabilities means the gross measure is not the most accurate representation of the fiscal position."

"We contend that Japan does not mirror the UK, and comparisons to the Gilt crisis of 2022 are off the mark given leveraged LDIs are not part of Japan's market structure."

"Governor Ueda remarked in the last BoJ meeting that the Bank is ready to step in to stabilize super long-end yields, and we could see BoJ bond intervention operations in the 10-30y part of the curve if 30y yields breach 4% in short fashion."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)