Russia: Structural reforms needed to support growth – ABN Amro


Economy outlook for the Russian country improved last year but still lacks the structural ingredients to steam a high growth environment, according to Anke Martens from ABN Amro. USD/RUB is being traded at 63.500.

Key quotes

“The Russian economy slowed down in 2019, after moderate expansion in 2018. The economy grew 1.3% year-on-year in 2019, following growth of 2.2% in 2018.” 

“As EMs outflows lessened and RUB became more stable, there was room for monetary easing and the CBR has cut its policy rate by a total of 125 bps since June 2019.”

“Lacklustre growth has been improving moderately on the back of policy support, and further fiscal stimulus is planned for the next five years.” 

“While lower oil prices are obviously negative for Russia, we do expect at least part of this effect to be temporary. In addition, the National Wealth Fund is well-equipped to cushion the blow in case of an external shock.”

“However, the economy lacks the structural ingredients for a high growth environment. The business climate remains challenging, with an overly large state role in the economy and weakness in the areas of corruption, rule of law, and regulatory quality.”

 

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD trying to set an interim bottom

EUR/USD has been consolidating around 1.0800 for a second consecutive day, ignoring risk-off and broad dollar’s demand. The case for a corrective advance becomes stronger.

EUR/USD News

USD/JPY stabilizes around 112.00 fresh 2020 highs

The USD/JPY pair has finally stalled at 112.22 but holds on to most of its latest gains. Buyers defending the downside in the 111.60/70 price zone.

USD/JPY News

AUD/USD at an over one-decade low near 0.6600

An uptick in the Australian unemployment rate, moving further away from RBA’s desired 4.5% level took its toll on the Aussie, also pressured by ruling risk-off.

AUD/USD News

Gold jumps to the highest level since February 2013, around $1620 area

Gold reversed an early dip to the $1604 area and jumped to fresh multi-year tops during the mid-European session on Thursday.

Gold News

FXStreet launches Real-Time Trading Signals

FXStreet Signals offers access to explanatory live webinars, real-time notifications when signals are triggered and exclusive membership to the company’s Telegram group, where users get direct guidance by our analysts and get room to discuss and interact.

More info

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures