Riksbank: No change in policy rate coming – Nordea Markets


Mats Hydén, analyst at Nordea Markets, suggest that they are expecting no change to the Riksbank policy rate at the announcement 25 April, but a slight downward revision to the rate path near-term and a risk for less bond buying.

Key Quotes

“The market is currently very soft in its pricing of the Riksbank’s future policy path. It is very unlikely that the Riksbank will revise its rate path downward all the way to where the market is. The risk-reward for betting on a soft rate decision is in our view thus poor.”

“One of the more interesting scenarios, although not our main scenario, is the one in which Riksbank is very clear about an intention to hike in September or October while making a major flattening of the rate path 2020+. This would be similar to what the Bank of Norway did recently, and it must surely be interpreted as change to the “reaction function”. It is unusual that the Riksbank uses kinks on the rate path as forward guidance and it would be a very clear signal that it would take a lot to derail yet another hike.”

“Unfortunately, this scenario is also very difficult to map onto possible market reactions. Since a kinked rate path would contain additional hikes while also signaling a changed reaction function it seems reasonable to us that SEK rates increase relative EUR rates in this scenario. But also, in the other scenarios above, the market could very well interpret the Riksbank as relatively hawkish compared to Fed or the ECB.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.

Feed news

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD holds its ground amid mixed EU election results

EUR/USD is stable around 1.1200 amid mixed EU elections in which main parties lost ground to both centrist and extreme ones.  Trump said he hopes for a deal with China. Liquidity is thin due to a UK holiday.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD falls on Brexit concerns, USD strength

GBP/USD has fallen below 1.2700 as markets digest the EU elections and see a growing chance of a hard Brexit after Farage's victory. The USD is gaining strength amid trade concerns. 

GBP/USD News

USD/JPY: bearish case firm as long as below 109.65

Japan Leading Economic Index fell to its lowest in almost three years in March. US and UK holidays keeping action around the FX board limited.

USD/JPY News

Gold consolidates in a range, around $1285 level

The precious metal struggled to capitalize on last week's goodish recovery move from multi-week lows and remained capped below the $1287-88 supply zone. A combination of diverging forces failed to provide any meaningful impetus. 

Gold News

The Evolution of Three Issues are Key in the Week Ahead

As May winds down, the light economic calendar will allow investors to take their cues from the evolution of three disruptive forces--trade, Brexit and the US economy.  With actions against Huawei and possibly a handful of Chinese surveillance equipment producers, the US raised the stakes.

Read more

Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures