Really quite strong Retail Sales needed to provide sustainable support for the Dollar – Commerzbank

Today, October Retail Sales will be featured in the US economic docket. In the view of economists at Commerzbank, even a strong figure could not be enough to lift the US Dollar.

Strong consumer data no support for the Dollar?

“Today might provide some support for the US currency on the economic front though. We expect a decent rise (month on month) in Retail Sales in October, which would illustrate that the Fed rate hikes are not yet affecting the mood of US households to spend. That in turn provides the central bank with scope to tighten its monetary policy further. However, the data would probably have to be really quite strong to provide sustainable support for the Dollar.”

“We too only expect economic growth to turn negative next year. That in turn means that a currently only marginally stronger economic development does not necessarily mean that the rate hikes are evaporating without effect, thus requiring a more aggressive approach.” 

See – US Retail Sales Preview: Forecasts from seven major banks, big boost in October