RBNZ’s Hawkesby: Next two meetings are live, no decisions have been made
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Christian Hawkesby explains the decision to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3% at a press conference following the August monetary policy meeting on Wednesday.
Hawkesby responds to media questions after delivering the prepared remarks.
Key quotes
Next two meetings are live, no decisions have been made.
OCR projection troughs around 2.5%, consistent with further cuts.
Whether we go faster or slower on cuts is up to data.
Never had a 4 to 2 vote before.
Range of views around the risks to outlook.
Hope to appoint new MPC member for October meeting.
Not changed view on neutral, OCR not restrictive anymore.
Fiscal outlook sees government spending falling, helps with inflation.
Q2 economic activity considerably weaker than expected.
House prices not rising as we had expected.
If business and consumer stay cautious that might prompt more policy action.
Past 250 bps of easing will support growth.
Comfortable with fall in NZ$.
Market reaction to RBNZ Hawkesby’s presser
NZD/USD remains heavy below 0.5850 on Hawkesby’s comments, trading 1.20% lower on the day as of writing.
(This story was corrected on August 20 at 3.55 GMT to say that "Hawkesby responds to media questions after delivering the prepared remarks," not Orr.)
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Author
Dhwani Mehta
FXStreet
Residing in Mumbai (India), Dhwani is a Senior Analyst and Manager of the Asian session at FXStreet. She has over 10 years of experience in analyzing and covering the global financial markets, with specialization in Forex and commodities markets.
