RBNZ: Central scenario sees first rate hike in November 2019 - BNZ

The BNZ Research Team lowered the profile for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rates. They think the RBNZ will defer due to: global growth outlook deterioration, a little less aggressive Federal Reserve, soft NZ Q3 retail sales, and lower commodity prices. 

Key Quotes: 

“Our central scenario now sees the first rate increase delayed until November 2019 from August 2019 with the cash rate peaking and stalled at 2.25% (previously 2.75%).”

“Clearly the interest rate track is heavily data dependent and if inflationary pressures do come quicker and stronger than anticipated our original interest rate track will come back into focus. Alternatively, given the current stance of the RBNZ it is conceivable that interest rates remain unchanged for a very long time. We now think the risk of a flatline track is greater than the upside alternative.”

“And lastly, if no inflation is generated during the current period and the NZ economy gets sideswiped by falling global activity there remains an outside chance that the next move in rates is down, albeit some distance into the future.”

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.

Feed news

Get Weekly Crypto trade ideas!  
Empower yourself with the best market insights

Join FXStreet Premium!    

Latest Forex News

Latest Forex News

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD retreats from 1.20 amid mixed US data

EUR/USD has retreated from its move toward 1.20 as US data is mixed. Building Permits and Housing Starts beat expectations but Consumer Sentiment missed with 86.5 points. Vaccine news is eyed.


GBP/USD battles 1.38 as US yields halt their falls

GBP/USD is trading around  1.38, off the highs as US Treasury yields are stabilizing after falling beforehand. US data is mixed. Sterling continues benefiting from Britain's vaccination campaign.


Stellar bulls on wrong side of uphill battle

XLM price has erected an ascending parallel channel on the 4-hour chart. A bounce from the setup’s lower trend line, although logical, seems unlikely. Stellar’s bear flag pattern on the 1-hour chart adds weight to the bearish outlook.

Read more

XAU/USD climbs to the highest level since Feb. 25, beyond $1,780

Gold gained strong follow-through traction for the second consecutive session on Friday. The USD struggled to capitalize on its attempted recovery and benefitted the commodity. Rebounding US bond yields, the risk-on mood did little to hinder the positive momentum.

Gold News

Gamestop waits for breakout signal, technical levels to watch

GameStop is struggling for relevance as COIN takes over! GME shares under pressure, down 6% on Thursday. GME is looking for a new CEO according to Reuters.

Read more