|

RBA minutes: Neutral nominal rate stands at 3.5%

The minutes of the July RBA meeting when interest rates were held unchanged at 1.5% have been released, highlighting that the Central Bank now estimates neutral real rate had fallen to around 1%, while neutral nominal rate stands at 3.5%.

As the RBA minutes note: "Taking into account all the available information, the Board judged that holding the accommodative stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time."

Key headlines

Judged steady policy stance consistent with growth, inflation targets

Saw welcome improvement in world economy, number of central banks more positive

Domestic labour, housing markets continued to warrant careful monitoring

Repeats a rising a$ would complicate economic rebalancing

Australian economic data for q2 had generally been positive

Data suggest gdp growth increased in q2, household consumption picked up

Jobs data positive, provided further confirmation of improvement in labour market

Recent rise in employment to support household incomes, spending

Underemployment still elevated, wage pressures subdued

Fiscal policy to be more expansionary in 2017/18 than previously expected

Stronger infrastructure spending to have significant positive spillovers to economy

Too early for tighter lending rules to have full effect on housing market

Estimates neutral real rate had fallen to around 1 pct, neutral nominal rate at 3.5 pct

Author

Ivan Delgado

Ivan Delgado

Independent Analyst

Established in the Asian continent since 2009, Ivan studied a degree in Business at the University Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona), while also earning a postgraduate degree in Business Administration.

More from Ivan Delgado
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD defends 1.3300 after strong UK PMI data

Following Thursday's sharp decline, GBP/USD clings to small gains above 1.3300 in the American session on Friday, supported by the upbeat UK Retail Sales and July PMI data. Nevertheless, the pair's upside remains capped as investors cling to a cautious stance amid a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East. The US July PMI data failed to trigger relevant price action.

EUR/USD remains below 1.1400 after mixed US PMIs

EUR/USD pressures daily lows below the 1.1400 mark in the American session on Friday. Mixed S&P Global PMIs, as manufacturing output contracted while services activity expanded in July, triggered no relevant market reaction. The focus remains in Middle East developments and inflation-related concerns.

Gold holds above $4,050 but momentum still missing

Gold builds on its modest intraday bounce and climbs above the $4,050 level on Friday, hitting a fresh daily high amid a modest US Dollar pullback. The fundamental backdrop, however, warrants some caution before confirming that the pullback from an over two-week high, touched on Wednesday, has run its course and positioning for any meaningful upside.

Ethereum: Derivatives interest in ETH improves, but signs of caution remain

Ethereum is hovering slightly below the $1,900 level, down 3% on Thursday following a slight expansion in derivatives interest. The top altcoin's open interest has increased to 14.60 million ETH, marking a 600K ETH increase over the past two days and its highest level since June 7.

XRP retreats as ETF interest cools
Ripple (XRP) slides toward the short-term $1.10 support on Friday, as broader crypto market sentiment weighs on crypto assets. The sell-off mainly stems from fears of inflation in the United States (US) amid the ongoing war in the Middle East and rising Oil prices.
US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?
The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.