Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
HYCM
Merck & Co is a multinational healthcare US company which is based in New Jersey. Originally founded in Germany Merck is known for its development of medicines, vaccines, and biological therapies. With Goldman Sachs raising its probability of the US economy entering a recession in the next 12 months by 10bps to 35% is it worth looking at Merck’s strong seasonals? Although the healthcare sector is not ‘recession proof’ the healthcare sector has a reputation for performing well during economic downturns.
The seasonals are certainly strong. Over the last 10 years between March 17 and June 9, Merck’s shares have risen by an average of over 6%. The winning percentage is also 100% and the maximum drawdown is just over 10%. So, is it time to put Merck to work?
Major trade risks: The major trade risk here is that an economic downturn also drags on Merck’s share price and/or some specific news hinders the share price.
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