Pound Sterling trades firmly as Fed rate cut in September looks likely

The Pound Sterling (GBP) holds onto Friday’s gains around 1.3300 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair shows strength as the US Dollar (USD) licks its wounds following the sharp decline registered on Friday after the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July.

At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades close to Friday’s low of around 98.60.

The US NFP report showed that labor market conditions have cooled down significantly. According to the report, the economy created fresh 73K jobs, significantly lower than expectations of 110K. Also, employment figures for June and May were revised down sharply. The Unemployment Rate accelerated to 4.2%, as expected, from the previous 4.1%.

Cooling labor market conditions have paved the way for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the September policy meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates next month has increased to 80.8% from the 41.2% seen on Thursday, a day before the release of the NFP data.

Meanwhile, the sudden resignation of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler has also increased hopes that the Fed could resume its monetary-easing cycle from September. Market experts believe that decisions from the new Governor appointed by US President Trump to replace Kugler will be biased towards his economic agenda.

"Kugler’s resignation allows the president to further shape the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) in his own image,” analysts at Harris Financial Group said, Reuters reports.

Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling trades mixed, focus shifts to BoE's policy

• The Pound Sterling demonstrates a mixed performance against its major peers at the start of the week. Investors brace for a volatile week for the British currency as the Bank of England (BoE) is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday.
• Traders are almost fully pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate reduction by the BoE this week, according to a report from Reuters. The BoE is seen performing a delicate balancing act while guiding the interest rate outlook amid escalating price pressures and cooling labor market conditions.
• Employment data for the three-months ending May and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June showed a slower hiring trend and a higher-than-expected increase in headline and core inflation.
• This week, investors will also focus on the revised S&P Composite and Services PMI data for July, which are scheduled to be released on Tuesday. The preliminary estimates showed that the Composite PMI stood at 51.0, signaling that the economy grew at a moderate pace.
• On Tuesday, investors will also focus on the US revised S&P Global and ISM Services PMI data for July. The ISM Services PMI is seen ticking up to 51.5 from 50.8 in June.
• Meanwhile, US President Trump's firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer has raised doubts over the credibility of the US data among investors. On Friday, Trump fired McEntarfer after the release of the NFP report for "faking job numbers".

Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling stays below 20-day EMA

The Pound Sterling holds near 1.3300 against the US Dollar on Monday. However, the outlook of the pair remains bearish as the breakdown from the Head and Shoulders (H&S) chart pattern remains intact and the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes downwards to near 1.3400. The neckline of the H&S pattern is plotted around 1.3360.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates below 40.00, almost reaching oversold levels, indicating that the bearish momentum is intact.

Looking down, the May 12 low of 1.3140 will act as a key support zone. On the upside, the July 30 high near 1.3385 will act as a key barrier.