OPEC still too optimistic for demand despite downward revision – Commerzbank

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

In its monthly report published yesterday, OPEC revised its demand forecast downwards for the first time for a while, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

OPEC regains its optimism towards global demand

“According to the report, global oil demand is set to rise by 2.1 million barrels per day this year. This is 135 thousand barrels per day less than in the previous forecast. For 2025, OPEC continues to expect an increase in demand of 1.8 million barrels per day. The forecast reduction is primarily due to a weak first quarter, which was reduced by 400 thousand barrels per day.”

“In contrast, the corrections in the other quarters were noticeably smaller. Despite the forecast reduction, OPEC remains significantly more optimistic about demand than other market observers. The IEA confirmed today that it only expects demand to rise by slightly less than 1 million barrels per day this year and next.”

“If the estimated call on OPEC+ is compared with current OPEC+ production, the oil market will remain significantly undersupplied according to OPEC's forecast, even if the voluntary production cuts by some OPEC+ countries are gradually reversed from October as intended. However, despite the downward revision, we believe that OPEC's demand forecast is still far too optimistic and that the estimated call on OPEC+ is therefore too high.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold holds above $5,000 as bears seem hesitant amid Fed rate cut bets

Gold edges lower at the start of a new week, though it defends the $5,000 psychological mark through the Asian session. The underlying bullish sentiment is seen acting as a headwind for the bullion. However, bets for more rate cuts by the Fed, bolstered by Friday's softer US CPI, keep the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and continue to support the non-yielding yellow metal as the focus now shifts to FOMC Minutes on Wednesday.

Week ahead: Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

The US jobs report for January, which was delayed slightly, didn’t do the dovish Fed bets any favours, as expectations of a soft print did not materialize, confounding the raft of weak job indicators seen in the prior week.

Global inflation watch: Signs of cooling services inflation

Realized inflation landed close to expectations in January, as negative base effects weighed on the annual rates. Remaining sticky inflation is largely explained by services, while tariff-driven goods inflation remains limited even in the US.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.