Oil prices under pressure after weak US data – Commerzbank

Oil prices fell by another 2% yesterday after already dropping significantly on Friday. Brent traded at just $68 per barrel at times. That is around $4 less than last Thursday, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Oil prices are likely to rise again

"The decision by the eight OPEC+ countries to increase Oil production by almost 550,000 barrels per day also in September had been expected in advance. However, statements made by OPEC+ representatives may have caused uncertainty. According to these statements, production could be increased further under certain conditions, even though current OPEC decisions do not allow for any further production increases until the end of 2026."

"However, the recent weak US economic data is likely to have been more important, as it has reignited concerns about demand in the world's largest Oil-consuming country. In addition, market participants are likely to shift their focus increasingly to the oversupply looming in the autumn. The possible loss of Oil supplies from Russia is likely to prevent a further decline in prices. US President Trump is threatening to impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian Oil if a ceasefire is not reached in Ukraine by the end of the week."

"Overnight, Trump stepped up pressure on India, one of the most important buyers of Russian Oil. The market may believe that Trump will back down, as he did recently with copper tariffs. If he does not and the tariffs actually come into force, c. The further development of Oil prices therefore depends largely on Trump's decision, which is difficult to predict."