Oil: OPEC+ shock supply increase – ING

Oil prices took a big hit yesterday as a barrage of new tariffs raised concerns over global growth and the outlook for oil demand. ICE Brent settled more than 6.4% lower on the day – the largest sell-off since August 2022, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

OPEC+ announces a surprise agreement to increase supply in May

"It wasn’t just tariff concerns weighing on the market, but also OPEC+ announcing a surprise agreement to increase supply in May by more than expected. Under its original plan, OPEC+ was to increase supply by 135k b/d in May. The group will now increase supply by 411k b/d. OPEC+ cited healthy fundamentals and a 'positive market outlook' for the move. However, we believe tariff uncertainty clouds the outlook for demand and prices."

"Possibly, the group feels that the prospect of stricter sanctions against Venezuela and Iran allows them to increase supply. Or maybe President Trump has been successful in convincing the Saudis to increase supply. There have also been suggestions that the group seeks to punish producers that consistently produced above their targets. Either way, this brings forward the expected surplus that we see in the oil market this year."

"More OPEC+ supply should translate to more medium sour crude oil and a wider Brent-Dubai spread. This spread has seen an unusual discount for much of the year. It's partly driven by OPEC+ withholding large volumes of oil from the market at a time when buyers are looking for alternative supplies amid tougher sanctions on Iran, Venezuela and Russia."