Oil nearing breakout, testing key trendline resistance

The commodity crude oil may be the next big commodity trade. The oil price is hammering a resistance trendline at $59/bbl. Should price break above this level, upside could be as much as 50% in the first half of 2026.

Not only is the chart bullish and testing a major level, but fundamentally it is likely to see money flood in from the metals trade. Almost all other major commodities have had big runs in 2025: Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium have run significantly higher, and even natural gas spiked 100% before pulling back recently. Institutional investors are accumulating and will likely trigger the next run. Once oil breaks out, retail and lower-level institutions are likely to rush into the trade, propelling it sharply higher.

While the bears are telling investors there is an oversupply of oil, the reality is that the rig count is dropping almost weekly. This means U.S. producers are shutting down the pumps.

Overall, oil is my top trade long for the first half of 2026.