Oil holds onto gains ahead of Trump statement – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Oil prices managed to move higher on Friday, with Brent settling 2.51% higher on the day. The market remains well supported in early morning trading today, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.

IEA revises upward its Oil supply growth estimates

"This is despite a deterioration in the tariff environment, with the Trump administration sending new letters to trading partners, including the threat of 30% tariffs on imports from the EU and Mexico. With tariffs taking centre stage once again, Oil demand concerns are starting to re-emerge."

"However, with President Trump scheduled to make a “major statement” on Russia today, there is plenty of uncertainty. There’s the potential that Trump could announce additional sanctions on Russia. This could dramatically shift the Oil outlook if sanctions target Russian energy."

"In its latest monthly Oil market report, the International Energy Agency cut its demand growth forecast to 700k b/d for 2025. Ignoring the Covid years, this would be the lowest growth rate since 2009. The IEA blames weaker demand on emerging market economies. Looking ahead to 2026, global Oil demand is forecast to grow by 720k b/d year on year. The IEA also revised upward its Oil supply growth estimates amid the return of barrels from OPEC+. The agency now forecasts global supply will grow by 2.1m b/d YoY this year, and by a further 1.3m b/d in 2026."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD drops to multi-month troughs near 1.3140

GBP/USD adds to Tuesday’s pullback and recedes to the lowest level since November 2025 near 1.3140. A firmer Greenback and continued political turmoil in the UK are keeping Cable under persistent pressure, with little sign of a meaningful recovery.

EUR/USD bounces off YTD lows around 1.1320

EUR/USD extends its decline on Wednesday, falling to fresh yearly lows near 1.1320. The pair remains on the defensive as the US Dollar continues to draw support from hawkish Fed expectations and uncertainty over the outcome of US-Iran peace negotiations.

Gold trims losses, back above $4,000

Gold retreats further and breaches below the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce for the first time since November 2025 on Wednesday. Higher-for-longer Fed expectations and a broadly firmer US Dollar continue to weigh on the precious metal, while uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement has done little to revive demand for the safe haven space.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP trade under pressure as September Fed rate-hike odds increase

Bitcoin is trading between $62,000 and $63,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by headwinds stemming from macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

5.90% to 5.45%: Why the Pound ignored the bond market’s relief rally

Keir Starmer resigned on Monday, and the Pound barely moved. That near-silence is the tell. Sterling's real driver these past four months has not been the prime minister, nor the left-leaning frontrunner lining up to replace him, but the long end of the gilt curve, which answers to a force no British politician controls.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.