NZD/USD: Under mild downward pressure – UOB Group

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is under mild downward pressure against the US Dollar (USD); it could drift lower and test 0.5855. In the longer run, outlook is mixed; NZD is expected to trade in a 0.5835/0.6030 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

NZD is expected to trade in a 0.5835/0.6030 range

24-HOUR VIEW: "While we expected NZD to decline yesterday, we indicated that 'as there is no significant increase in downward momentum, it is unlikely to be able to break clearly below 0.5860.' Our analysis was not wrong, as NZD drifted to a low of 0.5862, settling at 0.5875 (-0.39%). While there is still no clear increase in downward momentum, the underlying tone remains soft. Today, NZD could drift lower and test 0.5855. The major support at 0.5835 is unlikely to come under threat. Resistance is at 0.5895; a breach of 0.5910 would suggest the mild downward pressure has eased."

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our update from two days ago (14 May, spot at 0.5935) remains valid. As highlighted, 'the recent price movements have resulted in a mixed outlook.' For the time being, we expect NZD to trade in a 0.5835/0.6030 range."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold holds above $4,000/three-month low as Fed hike bets and firm USD cap upside

Gold struggles to capitalize on its modest recovery from levels below the $4,000 psychological mark, or a three-month low set earlier this Friday, and retains a bearish tone through the first half of the European session. Federal Reserve officials recently signaled there is no urgency to raise interest rates. Traders, however, are still pricing in around an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

Week ahead – Central bank and earnings bonanza could roil markets

Fed, ECB and BoJ to sit on the sidelines after September hikes. But RBNZ and BoC poised to lift borrowing costs. Inflation data out of the US, Japan, Australia to also be important. UK budget: no surprises would be good news for the Pound.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.