NZD/USD: Top of the pack and eyes 0.6848

  • NZD/USD holds steady in early Asia, as the top performer following the CPI result day prior. 
  • NZD/USD is currently trading at 0.6785, up from the US session low of 0.6777, supported by the 200-1hr SMA. 

NZD/USD extended its gains yesterday following the CPI data result and with risk on markets overnight, the kiwi outperformed.  "Concerns about the Government shutdown are also starting to weigh on US markets, adding to the lift. Stronger CPI will temper caution from the RBNZ somewhat, but we expect dovishness and a lower kiwi in time. For now, eyes return to global developments and the risk environment – we expect it to remain challenging," analysts at ANZ Bank explained. 

For the day ahead, one major risk for markets comes with the ECB in the European session for its first meeting of the year. Downside risks are a significant concern and we are unlikely to see a change in guidance nor policy. Instead, traders might be more inclined to prepare for today's jobs data from Australia. 

Aussie jobs is next major risk

Analysts at Westpac explained that Job creation reportedly jumped to 37k in Nov, boosting the 6mth annualized pace to a rapid 2.9%. "Sample rotation seems to have played a role though. Westpac looks for some payback, with a modest 5k rise in total employment (consensus 18k). Our forecast for the unemployment rate, however, is in line with consensus, holding steady at 5.1%, thanks to a pullback in the participation rate after the unexpected jump in Nov."

NZD/USD levels

Support 0.6650 

Resistance 0.6860

The price is now testing through the 4hr 200 SMA following a break of the 21-D SMA located at 0.6743 yesterday with a confluence of the 25th Nov pivotal low as a hard support line. Bulls can target a break to 0.6848 at this juncture being the prior swing high.  On a switch up, a break of the 21-D SMA sure up the negative bias again, especially on a break back below the 23.6% Fibo. However, on the upside, 0.6780 guards a run to 0.6800/60 territory. 

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