NZD/USD technical analysis: Bid for third straight day, teasing falling trendline breakout

  • NZD/USD is extending the two-day winning streak on expectations for a rate cut at Fed's Oct. 30 meeting. 
  • A bullish close above key trendline may remain elusive if the US Nonfarm Payrolls beat estimates. 

NZD/USD is flashing green for the third straight day amid the US recession fears and increasing investor expectations for an interest rate cut at the Federal Reserve (Fed’s) Oct. 29-30 meeting.

The currency pair is currently trading at 0.6320, representing 0.20% gains on the day, having rallied by 0..39% and 0.50% on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. 

As of now, more than 90% of traders are pricing in the chance of a third, 25-basis point rate cut at the Fed’s Oct. 30 meeting, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. The probability stood at 40% on Monday. 

The dovish expectations have been bolstered by the dismal manufacturing and private sector jobs data released earlier this week. 

The rate cut expectations may rise further in a USD-negative manner if the US Nonfarm Payrolls data, due at 12:30 GMT, prints below estimates. In that case, the NZD/USD pair will likely challenge 0.64. 

At press time, the pair is teasing a break above the trendline connecting July 22 and Sept. 12 highs. The trendline hurdle will likely remain intact if the US payrolls and wage growth numbers blow past expectations, forcing markets to price out the expectations for a Fed rate cut. 

Daily chart

Trend: Bullish

Technical levels


Today last price 0.632
Today Daily Change 0.0018
Today Daily Change % 0.29
Today daily open 0.6302
Daily SMA20 0.6329
Daily SMA50 0.6398
Daily SMA100 0.6508
Daily SMA200 0.6636
Previous Daily High 0.6318
Previous Daily Low 0.6255
Previous Weekly High 0.6349
Previous Weekly Low 0.6258
Previous Monthly High 0.6452
Previous Monthly Low 0.6249
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6294
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.6279
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6266
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6229
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6203
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6328
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6354
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6391



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