NZD/USD rises above 0.6200 ahead of US employment data

NZD/USD jumped more than 1% above 0.6200 and threatens the 200-day SMA at 0.6222.
The US reported mixed low-tier economic data.
All eyes are on US employment data to be released on Thursday and Friday.

Patricio Martín FXStreet

On Monday, the NZD/USD gained significant ground after three consecutive days of losses jumping above the 0.6200 threshold. However, bulls need the acceptance of the 200-day Simple Moving Average at 0.6222 to continue advancing.

The United States released low-tier economic data. The US Chicago PMI for July came in slightly below expectations at 42.8 vs 43, and the Dallas Manufacturing index declined in the same month but at a somewhat lower rate than anticipated, at -20 vs -26.3.

That being said, the main highlight of the week is the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report to be released on Friday. The consensus expects job creation to have decreased in July and for hourly earnings and the unemployment rate to remain stable. It's noteworthy that Chair Powell stated last week that the next interest rate will be made solely based on new data, so the direction of the US labour market will be crucial for investors. On Tuesday, the JOLTs Job Opening will be released and on Wednesday, the economic calendar will feature the ADP employment change, followed by fresh Jobless claims data on Thursday.

In terms of the next Federal Reserve next monetary policy decisions, tightening expectations remain steady. According to World Interest Rate Possibilities (WIRP) tool, the markets are currently pricing in a 20% chance of a 25 bps hike in the September meeting and top out near 40% in the November meeting.

On the Kiwi’s side, investors will see New Zealand’s labour market data, which will be released in early Wednesday’s session.

NZD/USD Levels to watch

The technical outlook for the NZD/USD, as per the daily chart, is neutral to bullish, as the indicators are recovering but still weak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands below just above the midline with a positive slope, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still prints red bars. On the other hand, the pair is below the 20 and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) but above the 100-day SMA, implying that the bulls remain in control on a broader scale.

Resistance levels: 0.6222 (200-day SMA),0.6230 (20-day SMA), 0.6250.
Support levels: 0.6200 (100-day SMA), 0.6180, 0.6150.

NZD/USD Daily chart

NZD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.6219
Today Daily Change	0.0069
Today Daily Change %	1.12
Today daily open	0.615

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6229
Daily SMA50	0.6168
Daily SMA100	0.6198
Daily SMA200	0.6219

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.6195
Previous Daily Low	0.612
Previous Weekly High	0.6274
Previous Weekly Low	0.612
Previous Monthly High	0.625
Previous Monthly Low	0.599
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6149
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6166
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6115
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.608
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.604
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.619
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.623
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6265

Author

Patricio Martín

FXStreet

Patricio is an economist from Argentina passionate about global finance and understanding the daily movements of the markets.

GBP/USD dips below 1.3350 as USD demand surges

GBP/USD extends its intraday slide and closes in on 1.3300 in the American session on Thursday. The pair remains under heavy bearish pressure as the US Dollar (USD) benefits from the risk-averse market atmosphere amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

EUR/USD drops toward 1.1350 post ECB decision

EUR/USD remains under heavy bearish pressure in the second half of the day on Thursday and trades at its lowest level in three weeks below 1.1370. The ECB's cautious tone on policy tightening in the near future and the broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength on risk-aversion drag the pair lower.

Gold trims gains, dips to $4,050

Gold keeps retreating on Thursday, trading well below $4,100 early in the American session. US crude oil prices climb to a fresh six-week high above $90 amid a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, fueling inflation fears and bolstering US Fed interest rate hike expectations. Hawkish Fed bets weigh negatively on the yieldless bullion.

XRP Price Forecast: XRP trades sideways as Ripple targets 10 million agentic AI transactions

Ripple (XRP) is losing momentum on Thursday, albeit gradually, trading above $1.13. The remittance token tagged a weekly high of $1.16 on Tuesday, with gains mainly attributed to developments on the United States (US) Clarity Act and recent signs that inflation is easing in the world’s largest economy.

Bitcoin falls as surging Oil prices revive inflation concerns

Bitcoin extends its correction, trading below $65,800 after a modest decline in the previous day. Despite BTC’s fading strength, US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds continued to attract institutional inflows on Wednesday, marking the seventh consecutive day of gains.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.