NZD/USD Price Analysis: Recovery from YTD low stalls near descending channel hurdle

The NZD/USD pair edges lower during the Asian session on Thursday and erodes a part of the previous day's strong move up to a one-week high. The pair currently trades around the 0.5970 region, down nearly 0.15% for the day, and is weighed down by a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick.

In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, stalls the overnight sharp pullback from a more than two-month high, though lacks bullish conviction. The flash US PMI prints released on Wednesday showed that business activity in the world's largest economy approached the stagnation point in August and raised questions if the Fed can afford to increase interest rates further. This, in turn, might keep a lid on the USD and lend some support to the NZD/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, the recent recovery from sub-0.5900 levels, or a fresh low since November 2022 touched last week, fails near a resistance marked by the top boundary of over a one-month-old descending channel. The said barrier, currently around the 0.5985 region, is closely followed by the 0.6000 psychological mark, or the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, which should act as a pivotal point and help determine the near-term trajectory for the NZD/USD pair.

Meanwhile, oscillators of the daily chart are still holding deep in the negative territory and make it prudent to wait for a sustained breakout through the said hurdles before positioning for any further gains. Spot prices might then climb to the next relevant hurdle near the 0.6065 zone en route to the 0.6100 mark. Some follow-through buying beyond the 0.6115-0.6120 supply zone should pave the way for an extension of the NZD/USD pair's upward trajectory witnessed over the past week or so.

On the flip side, the 0.5930 region is more likely to protect the immediate downside ahead of the 0.5900 round-figure mark. Some follow-through selling has the potential to drag the NZD/USD pair toward the trend-channel support, currently pegged near the 0.5830-0.5825 region. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and set the stage for deeper losses.

NZD/USD 4-hour chart

Technical levels to watch