NZD/USD Price Analysis: Kiwi bears approach 0.6000 despite improving NZ Q1 Manufacturing Sales

NZD/USD stays pressured at the lowest levels in a week.
NZ Q1 Manufacturing Sales improved from prior but slide beneath upbeat forecasts.
Clear downside break of one-week-old symmetrical triangle, bearish MACD signals suggest further fall in Kiwi price.
RSI conditions suggest bottom-picking around yearly low marked in the last week.

Anil Panchal FXStreet

NZD/USD bears occupy the driver’s seat as the Kiwi pair remains depressed at the weekly low surrounding 0.6030 amid the early Asian session on Thursday, after falling the most in a fortnight the previous day.

In doing so, the Kiwi pair ignores the recently firmer New Zealand (NZ) data while paying more attention to the previous day’s downside break of a one-weeklong symmetrical triangle. That said, NZ Manufacturing Sales improves to -2.1% in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023 versus 3.9% expected and -4.7% prior.

It should be noted that the heaviest bearish MACD signals in nearly two weeks join the aforementioned triangle breakdown to keep the NZD/USD bears hopeful.

With this, the quote appears all set to prod the 0.6000 psychological magnet. However, the RSI (14) is below the 50.0 level and hence the yearly low marked in the last week around 0.5985 may offer an opportunity for the counter-trend traders to take the risk.

Should the quote fails to recover from 0.5985, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the early October 2022 top near 0.5815 can’t be ruled out.

On the contrary, NZD/USD recovery appears elusive unless the quote stays below the previously stated triangle formation’s bottom line, close to 0.6065 at the latest. Even so, the top of the triangle, near 0.6100, can act as an extra check for the bulls before giving them control.

Following that, a convergence of the 200-SMA and 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the pair’s May 10-31 downturn, around 0.6180, will be key to watch for the NZD/USD bulls.

NZD/USD: Four-hour chart

Trend: Limited downside expected

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price	0.6036
Today Daily Change	-0.0042
Today Daily Change %	-0.69%
Today daily open	0.6078

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6154
Daily SMA50	0.6198
Daily SMA100	0.6244
Daily SMA200	0.6149

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.61
Previous Daily Low	0.6045
Previous Weekly High	0.6112
Previous Weekly Low	0.5985
Previous Monthly High	0.6385
Previous Monthly Low	0.5985
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6079
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6066
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6049
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6019
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.5993
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6104
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.613
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.616

Author

Anil Panchal

FXStreet

Anil Panchal has nearly 15 years of experience in tracking financial markets. With a keen interest in macroeconomics, Anil aptly tracks global news/updates and stays well-informed about the global financial moves and their implications.

GBP/USD appears well offered near 1.3160

GBP/USD builds on Tuesday’s losses, although it now manages to pick up some pace and bounce off earlier multi-month troughs near 1.3140. The Greenback’s solid performance and continued political turmoil in the UK are keeping Cable under persistent pressure, with little sign of a meaningful recovery.

EUR/USD softens to near 1.1350 as Fed hike bets rise ahead of PCE inflation data

The EUR/USD pair declines to around 1.1355 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Euro weakens to its lowest level since June 2025 against the US Dollar as traders increase their bets on US interest rate hikes later this year. The US May Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data will be the highlight on Thursday.

Gold off YTD lows, still struggles around $4,000 on hawkish Fed bets

Gold is off year-to-date lows, still struggling around $4,000 in the Asian session on Thursday as bears pause following the overnight slump to the lowest level since November 2025. Despite easing inflationary concerns amid falling oil prices, elevated Fed rate-hike bets help the US Dollar preserve its recent strong gains to the highest level since May 2025, weighing on non-yielding bullion.

Crypto market sheds over 50% of its value amid Bitcoin's brief decline below $60K

The crypto market has erased more than half of its value since reaching an all-time high in late 2025. The decline underscores the severity of the recent bear market and lack of a fresh catalyst to revive investor interest, according to a Wednesday X post by The Kobeissi Letter. The total crypto market cap peaked at a record $4.3 trillion on October 6, 2025.

5.90% to 5.45%: Why the Pound ignored the bond market’s relief rally

Keir Starmer resigned on Monday, and the Pound barely moved. That near-silence is the tell. Sterling's real driver these past four months has not been the prime minister, nor the left-leaning frontrunner lining up to replace him, but the long end of the gilt curve, which answers to a force no British politician controls.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.