NZD/USD holds firm near recent highs as China data, risk-on mood support Kiwi

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, bouncing back from Friday’s dip as broad US Dollar weakness and easing geopolitical jitters lift risk appetite. Traders trimmed safe-haven bets amid growing signs that the Israel-Iran tensions may not spiral into a wider conflict, although both sides continue to signal readiness for retaliation, keeping markets somewhat on edge.

The NZD/USD pair is holding close to Friday’s high, up roughly 1% on the day, and was last seen trading around 0.6072 during the American session. The Kiwi also draws support from stronger-than-expected Chinese Retail Sales data for May, which has brightened the demand outlook given China’s position as New Zealand’s largest export market.

From a technical standpoint, NZD/USD maintains a constructive tone. A broad look at the daily chart reveals a well-supported uptrend emerging since mid-April, with the pair consistently printing higher lows and higher highs. The short-term moving averages confirm this bullish undertone, the 21-day EMA sits at 0.6002, while the 50-day EMA is catching up around 0.5936. Price action has repeatedly found buyers near these dynamic supports, suggesting dip-buying remains the dominant play for now.

Notably, the pair has formed what appears to be a bullish flag breakout around late May, which has since resolved to the upside, lending credence to a continuation scenario toward the 0.6200 region as the next target.

Momentum signals further endorse the bullish bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovers just under the 60 mark, signaling healthy upside momentum without yet flashing overbought conditions. Similarly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive territory, with its signal line comfortably above zero, indicating that bullish momentum could persist in the near term.

On the topside, immediate short-term resistance is marked at 0.6080 — a level that has capped advances in recent sessions. A clear break above this barrier could pave the way for a test of the more significant ceiling at 0.6200. A sustained daily close beyond that could open the door for a further rally toward the 0.6300 area.

On the downside, initial support rests at the 21-day EMA, near 0.6002, with stronger backing at the 50-day EMA around 0.5936. A decisive drop below these levels would undermine the near-term bullish structure and could cause the pair to slip back toward the lower boundary of the flag pattern near 0.5850.

Overall, as long as NZD/USD holds above the 0.6000 mark, the broader bias remains to buy on dips, but traders will be eyeing a firm break above 0.6080 to confirm fresh bullish momentum.