Nvidia stock weakens at start of week as China applies pressure

Nvidia (NVDA) stock has begun the week on the back foot as the Chinese government begins to scrutinize the AI chip leader from multiple angles. Shares of Nvidia led the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) lower at the start of trading on Monday, losing as much as 1.8% before recovering some of the losses toward lunchtime.

The US equity market opened higher across the board as investors remain optimistic in the face of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) expected interest rate cut on Wednesday. But the Dow sank to slight losses as the majority of its holdings sold off late in the morning session. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite are jetting ahead, helping to register a mixed market.

Ahead of the Fed rate decision, US President Donald Trump has unsurprisingly re-entered the fray by calling for a larger interest rate cut than the 25 bps that the market anticipates. Referring to Fed Chair Jerome Powell as "Too Late", Trump said the cuts must be "BIGGER THAN HE HAD IN MIND."

Post by Donald J. Trump on Truth Social/September 15, 2025

Trump again on Sunday sought to bully a US appeals court into letting him oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook over allegations of mortgage fraud. One of the houses that Cook had allegedly sought a mortgage for as a primary residence, a home in Georgia, was reported by Bloomberg over the weekend as being referred to in bank documents as "a vacation home."

Cook is yet to address Trump's contention that a mortgage for a home in Massachusetts was improperly called a "primary residence". By firing her, something completely abnormal in the history of the Fed, Trump would be able to name a new replacement, who would presumably keep interest rates lower in line with his interests.

Trump separately called for US public corporations to abandon quarterly reporting, instead following a six-month schedule like some public companies in Europe and China.

Nvidia stock under pressure from China

China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) said a preliminary investigation has found that Nvidia's 2020 acquisition of Mellanox Technologies, an Israeli networking company, breached competition rules. The agency claims that Nvidia has not met specific conditions imposed when China initially approved the acquisition, but it provided no details.

Mellanox offered networking solutions for data centers and servers, and the $7 billion buyout allowed Nvidia to fortify its cloud and AI business suite. SAMR initially launched the investigation in late 2024 before the Trump administration took office, following the Biden administration sanctioned the sale of Nvidia's leading AI chips to China.

The Biden administration banned the sale of Nvidia's A100 and H100 chips to China back in 2022, while the Trump administration has decided to take a 15% cut of the revenue from sales of Nvidia's second-tier H20 chip, built exclusively to meet the requirements of the government export ban.

Reports earlier this summer said that the Chinese government was attempting to persuade its companies not to import the H20 after Trump administration figures referred to the chip as "old" and "not even our third best" technology.

Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu (BIDU) have both announced building their own AI chips in-house in order to meet heavy demand from the Chinese market for AI chips, potentially cutting Nvidia out of the picture.

In related but separate news, China has launched a new anti-dumping probe against foreign semiconductor companies. The move follows the US Commerce Department adding two Chinese firms, GMC Semiconductor Technology and Jicun Semiconductor Technology, to its restricted trade list for importing US chipmaking equipment for Chinese chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), which was blacklisted by the US in 2020 for its ties to the Chinese military.

Nvidia stock forecast

Nvidia stock is showing reticence as it tiptoes just below resistance. The all-time high at $184.47 from August 28 has held firm over the past two weeks as Nvidia saw competition in the AI space from Broadcom (AVGO) and Oracle (ORCL). After trading higher since last Wednesday, Nvidia bulls just need one good headline to produce new highs.

NVDA is holding above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at the moment, but more bad news or a turn in the market could send shares down to support near $153.13, which is also close to the 100-day SMA.

NVDA daily stock chart