Nvidia stock trades at $131 ahead of earnings as AI boom faces China chip curbs

As of May 27, Nvidia stock is trading at $131.29, down 1.1% over the past 24 hours. Despite the slight pullback, the company’s technical setup remains largely bullish.

Highlights

• Nvidia is trading at $131, down 1.1%, as markets await its Q1 earnings release on May 28. 

• Analysts expect strong results driven by AI chip demand, but geopolitical tensions over China sales could pose headwinds. 

• Technical indicators suggest a potential breakout above $143 if earnings and guidance meet bullish expectations.

The stock currently exhibits a flag continuation pattern—a typically bullish signal that suggests a period of consolidation before another upward leg. Nvidia has gained more than 50% since early April, reflecting renewed investor confidence amid strong demand for AI-driven technologies and chipsets.

From a technical perspective, Nvidia is approaching significant resistance at the $143 level, which corresponds to the highs observed in late February. A breakout above this area would likely open the door to further gains, with $150 acting as the next psychological barrier and potential price magnet in the short term. On the downside, immediate support is seen around $121, aligning with previous March highs, while stronger support rests near $115, which is close to the 50-day moving average. This level is also reinforced by institutional buying zones observed in the past several months.

NVDA stock price dynamics (March 2025 - May 2025). Source: TradingView.

Momentum indicators are currently neutral to bullish. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering just under 70, indicating the stock is not yet overbought but is nearing a critical zone. The MACD line remains above the signal line, suggesting that upward momentum still has room to continue. Moreover, the moving average convergence-divergence pattern supports the thesis of a continued uptrend if earnings and macro conditions remain favorable.

Market context: AI leadership and regulatory tensions

Nvidia is set to report earnings after market close on May 28, with Wall Street analysts expecting a blockbuster report. Consensus estimates are projecting fiscal Q1 revenue of $43.3 billion, marking a 66% increase year-over-year, alongside an adjusted net income of $0.88 per share, representing a 44% increase from the same period last year. These strong expectations are driven primarily by unprecedented demand for Nvidia's AI GPUs across cloud computing and hyperscale data center operators.

The upcoming earnings call will also be closely watched for updates on Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell architecture. Analysts believe that early deployment of these chips could further solidify Nvidia’s dominance in the AI and data center markets. However, not all news has been positive. Nvidia recently disclosed a $5.5 billion projected charge due to restrictions on its advanced AI chip sales to China, particularly around the H20 chip. This geopolitical headwind remains a wildcard and could materially affect near-term growth depending on the outcome of ongoing U.S.–China tech policy negotiations.

Despite these challenges, institutional and retail sentiment remains broadly constructive, underpinned by Nvidia’s irreplaceable role in the AI hardware ecosystem. Its chips are foundational to everything from ChatGPT-style large language models to generative video, robotics, and autonomous driving.

Breakout likely, but volatility expected

If Nvidia delivers on expectations or surprises to the upside, the stock has a strong probability of breaking out above the $143 resistance level. A convincing move above that level would put $150 firmly in sight, especially if forward guidance supports continued top-line expansion and operating margin stability. The bullish technical setup and strong AI-related tailwinds lend further credibility to this upside scenario.

On the contrary, if earnings miss expectations or if management guides conservatively—perhaps due to geopolitical or supply chain uncertainties—the stock could face renewed selling pressure. In this case, Nvidia may retrace to test support levels around $121 or even dip to $115 in a broader market pullback.

Nvidia's revenue from China has declined from 17% to 13% year-over-year due to regulatory challenges and geopolitical tensions. However, new AI partnerships in regions like the Middle East are helping to offset the impact of reduced Chinese sales.