Nvidia recovers 6% as US inflation falls, Trump walks back Canadian metal tariff

Nvidia (NVDA) advanced more than 6% on Wednesday after United States (US) President Donald Trump walked back a doubling of tariffs on Canadian steel and other metals late Tuesday.

The Canadian province of Ontario decided to ditch its 25% surcharge on electricity exports to northern US states, and Trump then took his promise of 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and metals imports off the table. Trump’s 25% tariff on worldwide steel and aluminum, however, still applies to Canada as they do to all other countries.

Additionally, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February arrived before the opening bell with good news. Core inflation dropped from 3.3% to 3.1% YoY, which was a tenth of a percentage point below the consensus.

Tech stocks like Nvidia tended to rise on the inflation news as odds of the Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates are now moved up on the calendar. The NASDAQ Composite advanced 1.2%, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) still fell 0.3%. 

The latter might be due to Canada announcing $21 billion in tariffs on US goods and Europe retaliating to Trump’s global steel and metal tariff with their own tariffs on US agriculture and industrial products. 

Nvidia stock news: Tariffs fill the headlines ahead of GTC next week

Nvidia has traded over the past week as much as 31.6% off its January 7 high as Trump’s trade war policies have taken center stage in financial markets, so Wednesday’s gains are a good sign. 

But many observers are pointing out that much of the world’s retaliatory tariffs are pinpointed at particular US exports. Canada is curbing US exports of Kentucky bourbon. Europe is doing much the same, as well as raising tariffs on US motorcycles and beef. China is focused largely on hit US exports of agricultural goods.

Tariffs are unlikely to become a major factor for Nvidia since the world relies on its AI-focused suite of chips.

Wedbush Securities came out with a bullish call on Nvidia stock on Wednesday in the leadup to the company’s annual GTC conference scheduled for next week. Wedbush said the focus on tariffs was simply a distraction from Nvidia's reign as the leading company in a decade-long “AI Revolution”.

“We have been on the phone with investors constantly over the last week walking through the scenarios for the Mag 7 and AI Revolution and why we remain firmly bullish and believe tech stocks will ultimately make new all-time highs during the second half of 2025 despite a disaster panicked sell-off to start the year," Wedbush analysts wrote in their client note.

Running from March 17 through 21, Wedbush said the Nvidia GTC should renew investor focus on the roughly $2 trillion in spending on AI technology that will arrive over the next five to seven years. CEO Jensen Huang will give his keynote speech on March 18.

Nvidia stock forecast

Nvidia stock has traded quite violently of late as the broad US stock market has pulled back in response to the Trump-led trade war. NVDA shares have punctured the prior support level of $115 on Wednesday, though it appears that this level is proving somewhat resistant. 

The good thing for bulls is that NVDA stock found support around $105 in the first two trading sessions this week. But all bets are off if the stock retests this level. A break at $105 would create a stream of sellers that might propel NVDA down to support at $92, the point of support from the massive August 5, 2024 crash.

Traders should remain wary since NVDA remains within a technical short-term downtrend. NVDA has experienced a number of lower highs and lower lows since the January 7 all-time high. More importantly, NVDA has lost the ascending support band (in green) that supported the upward movement in the rally since October 2023. Nvidia stock needs to trade back above $120 in order to re-enter that support band.

NVDA daily stock chart