No policy changes expected at the July FOMC meeting – Goldman Sachs

Economists at Goldman Sachs published a client note, citing their expectations on the FOMC policy decision due on the cards this Wednesday.

Key Quotes:

“We do not expect any policy changes at the July FOMC meeting and expect only limited changes to the post-meeting statement.

The statement is likely to upgrade the description of job growth, but might also recognize that inflation has declined further.

We think the statement is also likely to acknowledge that the balance sheet announcement is now closer at hand. 

We continue to expect the FOMC to announce the start of balance sheet normalization in September.

We see a 5% probability that the next rate hike will come in September, a 5% probability that it will come in November, and a 50% probability that it will come in December, for a 60% cumulative probability of at least three hikes this year.”