Nio Stock Forecast: NIO bounces back after hitting quarterly delivery target

Nio (NIO) stock bounced back midweek after meeting its quarterly delivery target, managing 15,641 units in September. That figure, helped by a surplus of SUV sales, pushed Nio to meet management’s third-quarter target of deliveries between 55,000 and 57,000.

NIO’s stock price is also helped by positivity concerning a US Congressional deal that gave the legislative body another six weeks to hammer out a budget without shutting down the federal government, as was earlier predicted. Overall the stock market has recovered on Thursday after taking a hammering at the start of the week. 

Nio stock news: Q3 deliveries rise 75% from a year ago

On Sunday, Nio unveiled its delivery update for the final month of the third quarter. Total deliveries of 55,432 surmounted management’s forecast at the beginning of the quarter, but deliveries did decline month-by-month during the quarter. 

July’s 20,462 deliveries were followed by August’s 19,329 deliveries and September’s 15,641. No reason was given why deliveries dropped on a monthly basis. In total, the third quarter witnessed a 75% surge in deliveries YoY, while September deliveries rose 44% YoY.

September’s figures consisted of 11,504 electric SUVs and 4,137 electric sedans. The better mix of SUVs will likely help Nio’s struggle with profitability when it reports Q3 earnings on November 9.

However, Nio’s primary competitors – XPeng (XPEV) and Li Auto (LI) –  both overshadowed Nio’s data from September. XPeng reported an 81% surge in YoY deliveries to 15,310. Even more impressive, Li Auto’s September deliveries exploded 213% from a year ago to 36,060. 

Also, unlike Nio, Li Auto and XPeng both experienced rising MoM delivery figures. Both EV companies advanced 1% or more in the premarket.

Nio’s share price has been beaten down since the automaker raised more than $1 billion in a dilutive convertible bond offering in mid-September. Nio’s share price fell more than 20% following the announcement, but has recently rebounded around 10%.

EV stocks FAQs

What are electric vehicles?

Electric vehicles or EVs are automobiles that use rechargable batteries and electric motors to accelerate rather than internal combustion engines (ICEs). They have been around for more that 100 years, but battery technology research & development was meager for much of the 20th century. Lithium-ion battery technology became advanced enough to produce EVs at scale in the late 1990s and 2000s, and sales have been steadily increasing since then Tesla’s Roadster was unveiled in 2008. EVs are viewed as a means of reducing carbon emissions since battery electric vehicles (BEVs) themselves produce zero emissions. Other vehicles called plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) utilize both battery electric power and ICEs as a backup.

What is the market share held by EVs?

EVs are growing from a small base, but they rose from 9% of global new auto sales in 2021 to 14% of the total in 2022. This was a 65% YoY growth rate, and the industry delivered 10.2 million EVs worldwide in 2022. Projections show this number climbing above 16 million in 2023. Across the world, market shares differ greatly among nations. Nearly 88% of Norwegian new car sales in 2022 were EVs. On the other hand, the United States, where much of the modern innovation in EVs was forged, had less than 8% of new vehicle sales go to EVs in 2022. The largest EV market in the world, China, saw 30% of the market go to EVs that year.

Who is the father of the EV?

We know you’re thinking Elon Musk, but he’s probably more like the father of the mass-market, contemporary EV. All the way back in 1827, a Hungarian priest named Anyos Jedlik invented the electric motor and used it the following year to power a vehicle of sorts. French scientist Gaston Planté invented the lead-acid battery in 1859, and German engineer Andreas Flocken built the first true electric car for the public in 1888. EVs made up about 38% of all vehicles sold in the US around 1900. They began losing market share rapidly after 1910 when gasoline-powered vehicles grew much more affordable. They largely died off until new research programs in the 1990s led to gradual private sector investment in the 2000s.

Who are the biggest makers of electric vehicles?

China’s BYD is by far the largest manufacturer of EVs in the world. In 2022 it sold 1.8 million EVs and in the second half of the year made up 20% of the global market. The asterisk given to BYD is that the vast majority of these vehicles are hybrids. Tesla’s 12% market share is often treated as more significant than BYD, because it only sells BEVs and is the most famous EV brand in the world. Volkswagen, BMW and Wuling then round out the top five. As a new sector with heavy investment though, many startups have flooded the market. These include China’s Nio, Li Auto and Xpeng; a Swedish-Chinese manufacturer called Polestar; and Lucid and Rivian from the US.

Nio stock forecast

Nio stock still needs to clear the $9.50 level to make the market take this miniature rally seriously. After seeming to bottom at around $8 a share early last week, NIO stock was able to rally up past $9. The $9.50 level has worked as support on August 29, back in April and at the very start of 2023. It also showed the quality of resistance in February and March, so we might expect it to do so again on a first test.

Nio stock has already closed above the 9-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) last week, so the 21-day SMA is the next obstacle. Being that it sits just a bit above $9.50, this gives the overall region around $9.50 more significance. A break and close above $9.50 would see Nio attempt to penetrate the $10.15 to $11.30 high-volume region that has had a tendency to slow down rallies. 

NIO daily chart