Natural Gas jumps near 2% with European gas concerns at hand


  • Natural Gas prices are jumping higher on Monday in both US and European trading. 
  • Traders are picking up Gas contracts with gas prices in Spain pointing to shortage.
  • The US Dollar Index sees ample support towards 105.00 despite its downbeat performance last week. 

Natural Gas (XNG/USD) reverses from its earlier thoughts this Monday that a global recession could be showing up. Biggest element for this turnaround comes out of Spain where local gas prices are trading above the benchmark European prices. Spain has a just-in-time gas network with little storage facilities compared to France or Germany, and is very much dependant from inflows from other countries. 

The DXY US Dollar Index meanwhile sees further upticks this Monday after the positive undertone from the US Jobs Report on Friday, which smashed all expectations with a stellar performance of 303,000 against 200,000 expected. US yields increased by over 20 basis points in the US 10-year benchmark rate last week, which means expectations for that first rate cut are starting to reverse substantially. 

Natural Gas is trading at $1.94 per MMBtu at the time of writing.  

Natural Gas news and market movers: Spain has issues

  • Spillover risk lingers between the Carbon Emission market and the Gas market.  Traders are cutting their Carbon exposure, which could point to a potential recession risk in the energy sector. Energy-consuming companies buy Carbon Emission rights to be able to burn Gas or consume other energy resources for their business. A decline in Carbon buying could mean a slowdown ahead in industrial production.
  • The ban on new US Gas exports from US President Joe Biden is starting to bite on a state level. Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro (Democrat) urged Joe Biden to reverse the policy with risk of losing the swing state in the 2024 Presidential Election, according to Bloomberg.
  • Dow Jones reports that TotalEnergies will expand its gas production in Texas after it acquired a 20% stake in Lewis Energy Group, which holds leases to mine Gas in Dorado.  
  • Bloomberg reports a drop in Natural Gas supplies with biggest factor being Egypt, which is set to halt gas exports over the summer, to redirect the gas feed inland in order to meet with the energy demand during the need for cooling. 

Natural Gas Technical Analysis: Short term squeeze

Natural Gas prices are facing issues again, with the rising US yields as the biggest threat on the horizon. US rates soared over 20 basis points in the US 10-year benchmark rate last week, while other major economies are seeing their central banks on the way to cut or have cut already. This rate differential weighs on the US against the rest of the world, and it could mean a slowdown is taking place: Even if the US economy is outperforming, higher rates will start to cut growth and this means less demand for Natural Gas.

On the upside, the key $1.97 level needs to be regained before challenging last week’s peak at $2.00. The next key mark is the historic pivotal point at $2.13. Should Gas prices pop up in that region, a broad area opens up with the first cap at the red descending trend line near $2.21.

On the downside, multi-year lows at $1.60 are still nearby, with $1.65 as the first line in the sand. In case of a breakdown below these levels, traders should look at $1.53 as the next supportive area. 

Natural Gas: Daily Chart

Natural Gas: Daily Chart

Natural Gas FAQs

Supply and demand dynamics are a key factor influencing Natural Gas prices, and are themselves influenced by global economic growth, industrial activity, population growth, production levels, and inventories. The weather impacts Natural Gas prices because more Gas is used during cold winters and hot summers for heating and cooling. Competition from other energy sources impacts prices as consumers may switch to cheaper sources. Geopolitical events are factors as exemplified by the war in Ukraine. Government policies relating to extraction, transportation, and environmental issues also impact prices.

The main economic release influencing Natural Gas prices is the weekly inventory bulletin from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), a US government agency that produces US gas market data. The EIA Gas bulletin usually comes out on Thursday at 14:30 GMT, a day after the EIA publishes its weekly Oil bulletin. Economic data from large consumers of Natural Gas can impact supply and demand, the largest of which include China, Germany and Japan. Natural Gas is primarily priced and traded in US Dollars, thus economic releases impacting the US Dollar are also factors.

The US Dollar is the world’s reserve currency and most commodities, including Natural Gas are priced and traded on international markets in US Dollars. As such, the value of the US Dollar is a factor in the price of Natural Gas, because if the Dollar strengthens it means less Dollars are required to buy the same volume of Gas (the price falls), and vice versa if USD strengthens.

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD consolidates below 1.0950 ahead of ECB policy announcements

EUR/USD consolidates below 1.0950 ahead of ECB policy announcements

EUR/USD turns sideways below 1.0950 in Thursday’s European session after rallying to a fresh four-month high on Wednesday. The pair trades with caution, as investors shift to the sidelines ahead of the European Central Bank policy meeting, which will be announced at 12:15 GMT.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD stays in daily range near 1.3000 after UK jobs data

GBP/USD stays in daily range near 1.3000 after UK jobs data

GBP/USD treads water at around 1.3000 in the European session, holding its retreat from the 2024-high it set at 1.3045 on Wednesday. The UK data showed that the ILO Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.4% in the three months to May, as forecast, failing to trigger a reaction.

GBP/USD News

Gold price remains stronger due to rising expectations of Fed rate cuts

Gold price remains stronger due to rising expectations of Fed rate cuts

Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher to near $2,470 per troy ounce on Thursday, remaining close to record highs amid growing optimism that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce rates in September.

Gold News

Worldcoin price sets for a rally following the breakout of the descending trendline

Worldcoin price sets for a rally following the breakout of the descending trendline

Worldcoin price faces a descending trendline on Thursday; a breakout signals a bullish move. On-chain data shows that WLD's daily active addresses are increasing, signaling greater blockchain usage. 

Read more

European Central Bank widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged in July

European Central Bank widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged in July

The European Central Bank is set to leave key rates unchanged after July policy meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde will be questioned about the possibility of a rate cut in September.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures