On the 7th of December China surprised friend and foe with an abrupt zero-covid U-turn. This year’s forecast has considerable up- and downside risks. Still, economists at Rabobank believe that from a medium-term perspective, China’s economic prospects have become more favourable after abandoning zero-Covid policy.
A pivotal pivot?
“While from a long-term perspective China’s decision to abandon its zero-covid policy is to be heralded, the short-term effects will likely turn out to be grim. The absence of (reliable and recent) data regarding new cases, hospitalization, deaths and many other relevant time series that could shed a light on the current situation, greatly complicates any attempt to make a solid impact analyses.”
“We expect a relatively mild recession that already started in the last quarter of last year and should end after the first quarter of this year. We further expect that most of the recovery hinges on a recovery in aggregate consumption and more specifically private consumption. All in all this should see the Chinese economy grow by 4.2% this year, but the uncertainty surrounding the impact of covid and the real estate sector ensure that it will likely be both an exciting and challenging year!”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Follow us on Telegram
Stay updated of all the news
EUR/USD drops toward 1.0650 ahead of German inflation data
EUR/USD is falling toward 1.0650 in European trading. Dismal China's Manufacturing PMI and pre-US debt deal vote anxiety support the safe-haven US Dollar while markets pare ECB rate hike bets after softer French inflation data. German inflation data, Fedspeak and US House vote eyed.
GBP/USD extends losses toward 1.2350 amid firmer US Dollar
GBP/USD is extending losses toward 1.2350 in the European session. Markets stay jittery amid China growth worries and ahead of the US House vote on the debt deal. Hawkish Fed's Mester underpins the ongoing US Dollar upsurge. More Fedspeak in focus.
Gold price rebound eyes $1,990 and US factors
Gold Price picks up bids to refresh intraday high as buyers cheer a two-day winning streak, after refreshing the lowest levels in 10 weeks. In doing so, the XAU/USD fails to justify the latest rebound in the DXY but aptly cheers the downbeat Treasury bond yields.
BTC bulls recovery plan targets $30,000 as bears exhaust
Bitcoin action slows down, allowing bears to doubt their strength. As more time elapses, the chances of bulls taking over control of BTC become more likely. A spillover effect would be noticeable in Ethereum and Ripple prices.
Risk off flow into month end
We had warned against the market wanting to get overly excited about the news of a US debt ceiling deal that was always going to get done. And now that this reality is coming to fruition, it’s back to focusing on the market drivers where investors need to focus.