|

Market wrap: US interest rates, the US dollar, and equities rose - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac offered their market wrap.

Key Quotes:

"Global market sentiment: US interest rates, the US dollar, and equities rose after Trump’s proposed tax reforms were unveiled.

Interest rates: US 10yr yields rose from 2.24% to 2.31% - a two-month high, 2yr yields from 1.45% to 1.48 – a nine-year high. Fed fund futures yields continued to price the chance of a December rate hike at 76%.

Currencies: The US dollar index rose 0.5% to a one-month high. EUR fell from 1.1790 to 1.1717 – a one-month low. USD/JPY rose from 112.30 to 113.26 – a two-month high. AUD fell from 0.7880 to 0.7836 – a one-month low. NZD outperformed, consolidating between 0.7180 and 0.7240. AUD/NZD fell from 1.0940 to 1.0868.

Economic Wrap

US durable goods orders rose 1.7% in August (vs 1.0% expected). A solid outturn, with the core measure - capital goods ex-defence and aircraft - up 0.9% (0.3% est)... We should see some modest upward revisions to Q3 GDP growth with business investment looking stronger in the middle of the quarter. The caution is that this data is notoriously volatile and subject to large revisions month to month. Pending home sales fell 2.6% (vs -0.5% expected). The NAR said:  "summer's terribly low supply levels have officially drained all of the housing market's momentum."

Fedspeak involved Brainard, who spoke about labour markets rather than monetary policy, but said the Fed is “treading water in terms of numbers”; and Bullard said there’s no need to raise rates with inflation still lagging, adding that he’s the most dovish member of the FOMC."

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

More from Ross J Burland
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD appears well offered near 1.3160

GBP/USD builds on Tuesday’s losses, although it now manages to pick up some pace and bounce off earlier multi-month troughs near 1.3140. The Greenback’s solid performance and continued political turmoil in the UK are keeping Cable under persistent pressure, with little sign of a meaningful recovery.

EUR/USD softens to near 1.1350 as Fed hike bets rise ahead of PCE inflation data

The EUR/USD pair declines to around 1.1355 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The Euro weakens to its lowest level since June 2025 against the US Dollar as traders increase their bets on US interest rate hikes later this year. The US May Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation data will be the highlight on Thursday. 

Gold off YTD lows, still struggles around $4,000 on hawkish Fed bets

Gold is off year-to-date lows, still struggling around $4,000 in the Asian session on Thursday as bears pause following the overnight slump to the lowest level since November 2025. Despite easing inflationary concerns amid falling oil prices, elevated Fed rate-hike bets help the US Dollar preserve its recent strong gains to the highest level since May 2025, weighing on non-yielding bullion.

Crypto market sheds over 50% of its value amid Bitcoin's brief decline below $60K
The crypto market has erased more than half of its value since reaching an all-time high in late 2025. The decline underscores the severity of the recent bear market and lack of a fresh catalyst to revive investor interest, according to a Wednesday X post by The Kobeissi Letter. The total crypto market cap peaked at a record $4.3 trillion on October 6, 2025.
5.90% to 5.45%: Why the Pound ignored the bond market’s relief rally
Keir Starmer resigned on Monday, and the Pound barely moved. That near-silence is the tell. Sterling's real driver these past four months has not been the prime minister, nor the left-leaning frontrunner lining up to replace him, but the long end of the gilt curve, which answers to a force no British politician controls.
Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.