Key US data coming up: eyes on FOMC minutes

Analysts at Nomura offered a preview of the next key data events from the US.

Key Quotes:

"ADP private employment: Consistent with our forecast for the BLS June employment report, we expect ADP to report a 205k increase in June private payrolls (Consensus: 190k)."

"Initial jobless claims: Continued labor market strengthening should help to keep initial jobless claims low relative to historical standards. "

"ISM non-manufacturing index: We expect the ISM non-manufacturing index to fall 0.6pp to 58.0 in June (Consensus: 58.3). Domestic demand appears to have remained strong in recent months but escalating trade tensions may have dampened business sentiment in the non-manufacturing sector. Many industries such as mining, agriculture, and construction reported input price uncertainty and supply disruptions partly due to escalation in trade tensions in the May ISM non-manufacturing survey. Continued uncertainty from trade-related issues will likely weigh on business sentiment in the near term."

"FOMC minutes: The June FOMC meeting largely met our expectations, with the Committee raising the target range for the federal funds rate, and generally reiterated the positive US economic outlook We expect the minutes to provide additional insight into the Committee’s deliberations on longer-term monetary policy questions as well as the potential downside economic risks arising from US trade protectionism. Specifically, the Committee’s decision to remove forward guidance language from the post-meeting statement may have been accompanied by an interesting discussion during the meeting. Moreover, Chair Powell’s surprising announcement that a press conference will be held after every FOMC meeting, starting in 2019, may also have engendered an interesting discussion."

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