Kazakhstan puts OPEC+ cohesion to the test – Commerzbank

Given this situation, it is hardly conceivable that Kazakhstan will limit oil production as planned, let alone compensate for the current overproduction with larger production cuts, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.

Tensions rise as OPEC+ eyes further output boosts

"According to the statement of the energy minister, Kazakhstan still sees itself as part of OPEC+ and is committed to cooperate constructively and to fulfill its obligations. However, the other OPEC+ countries will not want to leave it at mere words, as shown by the increased production expansion already agreed in May and the further production increase now being considered for June."

"These decisions are likely to be motivated by the fact that Kazakhstan is constantly exceeding its agreed production volumes. If Kazakhstan continues to violate the OPEC+ agreement, this could result in a further increase in production by the other countries out of anger, which would put more pressure on oil prices."

"The question therefore also arises as to whether Kazakhstan remaining in OPEC+ might do more harm than good. In recent years, Angola and Qatar have left OPEC because membership no longer suited their respective interests. These departures did not have any negative consequences for OPEC."