Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
Financial Source
Kellogg’s is a well-known US multinational food manufacturer that is headquartered in Battle Creek, Michigan in the United States. It was known as the Kellogg Company from 1922, so the firm is now over one hundred years old. Kellogg's has managed over $10 billion in revenue every year since including the global financial crisis years of 2007 and 2008.
So, with US bond investors expecting a US recession coming this year and the US yield curve being on track for its steepest monthly increase since October 2008 is this the time to buy Kellogg's as a recession buster? Consumer staples have a reputation of faring well during recessions as relatively basic food items are still purchased even though consumers have less disposable income.
The Kellogg Company certainly has a great seasonal pattern around this time of the year. From Mar 28 to May 15 it gained 75% of the time with an average return of 4.14%. The maximum drawdown has been -11.35% in March 2018 and the maximum gain was over 21% in 2009. So, is this the time to grab a bowl full of Kellogg’s shares?
Major trade risks: The major trade risk here is that some negative stock news impacts Kellogg’s share price.
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