Intel (INTC) stock jumps more than 5% after impressive earnings beat

Intel (INTC) stock has leaped back up to $27.65 in Friday's premarket after trouncing the Street on third-quarter earnings. Intel produced adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.59, which was near twice the $0.33 expected. GAAP EPS of $0.25 also beat consensus by 12 cents. Revenue of $15.34 billion beat analysts' average forecast by a mere $30 million, however.

Intel earnings news

Unlike Amazon (AMZN), where the market chose to focus on the most negative information on Thursday, Intel's guidance for Q4 revenue between $14 and $15 billion (about 30% lower than the same quarter one year ago) did not seem to bother the share price. In a sense, the fact that INTC stock is down 50.6% year to date meant that the market had already priced in a poor outlook, so a sizeable earnings beat was all it took to push the share price higher.

Management said full-year revenue would hit $63 billion to $64 billion, much lower than earlier guidance for $65 billion to $68 billion. Intel's GAAP $0.25 was also severely lower than the $1.67 earned in Q3 2021, but the fact that the legacy chipmaker had not capitulated on the profits front was enough to excite shareholders.

“To position ourselves for this business cycle, we are aggressively addressing costs and driving efficiencies across the business to accelerate our IDM 2.0 flywheel for the digital future," said CEO Pat Gelsinger.

Intel's client computing segment saw revenue drop 17% from a year ago, and the data center business fell 27% in YoY sales as well. The lack of demand for PCs has hurt the entire semiconductor market in 2022. This was quite apparent during Micron's (MU) earnings a month ago.

Intel's spin-off of Mobileye (MBLY) on Wednesday was quite a success. Despite listing the company for just $16.7 billion and selling about 5% of the company to the public, MBLY shares shot up 38% on its debut, meaning that Intel's equity advanced by about $5.2 billion a single trading session. MBLY shares, however, fell 5.4% on Thursday after their big debut.

Intel stock forecast

Intel stock's advancing share price puts it back up above the 20-day moving average. That is alongside the fact that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to showcase an upward glide. Advancing past the zero threshold is now the goal for bulls. In the meantime, the 50-day moving average at $29 looms large. A close above that moving average would give bulls the confidence to shoot for the $35 resistance level last reached in late August. 

However, any insightful chart watcher is going to point out that the most recent new low from October 11 through 13 found support around $24.69, which is lower than the $24.89 multi-year low stemming from August 24, 2015. The fact that INTC stock fell below this seven-year-old support level does not bode well for future price action. The truth is that despite talk of a Fed pivot, INTC may not have found its bottom. A cut to the 5%+ dividend would be all it takes to send INTC into bearish price discovery mode.

INTC daily chart