In in a blog posted on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) website on Wednesday, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that the further spread of the coronavirus outbreak to other countries could derail a highly fragile projected recovery in the global economy in 2020.
Outbreak was a stark reminder of how unforeseen events could threaten a fragile recovery, and urged G20 policymakers to work to reduce other uncertainties linked to trade, climate change and inequality.
Uncertainty is becoming the new normal.
While some uncertainties — like disease — are out of our control, we should not create new uncertainties where we can avoid it.
A Phase 1 trade deal between the United States and China eliminated some negative consequences of trade tensions, reducing the drag on global GDP by 0.2% in 2020, or about one quarter of the total impact.
But it left many tariffs in place and contained managed trade arrangements that could distort trade and investment.
The IMF estimates that these provisions will cost the global economy some $100 billion.
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