In its January month's oil market report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) offers the following projections while warning that the Mid East crisis is far from over.
Key Highlights:
Iraq oil supply potentially vulnerable amid rising political risks in the region.
US-Iran tensions and Iraqi protests had only minimal impact on oil operations.
But fragile situation may limit Iraq's plans to expand oil production capacity.
That may make it difficult for global industry to meet rising long-term demand.
IEA keeps oil demand growth estimate for 2020 at 1.2 mln bpd on subdued prices, higher GDP growth and trade war progress.
Global oil demand rose by 955,000 bpd year on year to 101.1 mln bpd in October.
OECD oil demand set to fall by 115,000 bpd in 2019 but grow by 275,000 bpd in 2020.
Global oil supply fell 780,000 bpd in Dec month on month due to Saudi cuts, seasonal decline of biofuels.
Q4 2019 global refining runs fell 230,000 bpd year on year, in 2020 refining intake will rise by 1.1 mln bpd.
OPEC crude production fell in December by 180,000 bpd month on month to 29.44 mln bpd.
Demand for OPEC crude set to fall to 28.5 mln bpd during H1 2020.
Non-OPEC supply growth set to expand from 2 mln bpd in 2019 to 2.1 mln bpd in 2020.
OECD oil stocks fell by 2.9 mln barrels in Nov to 2.912 bln barrels, 8.9 mln above 5-year average.
Even if OPEC adheres strictly to output pact, a strong build in global oil inventories likely in H1 2020.
Oil market has strong cushion against geopolitical tension with non-OPEC production rise, large OECD stocks
US-Iran de-escalation means major threat to oil supplies appears to have receded.
Amid a better market mood following the US-China trade deal, the rebound in the higher-yielding oil is seen picking up pace, as WTI rises nearly 1% to $58.35.
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